Michael J. Dueker
NBER Working Papers and Publications
|May 2008||Inflation, Monetary Policy and Stock Market Conditions|
with Michael D. Bordo, David C. Wheelock: w14019
This paper examines the association between inflation, monetary policy and U.S. stock market conditions during the second half of the 20th century. We estimate a latent variable VAR to examine how macroeconomic and policy shocks affect the condition of the stock market. Further, we examine the contribution of various shocks to market conditions during particular episodes and find evidence that inflation and interest rate shocks had particularly strong impacts on market conditions in the postwar era. Disinflation shocks promoted market booms and inflation shocks contributed to busts. We conclude that central banks can contribute to financial market stability by minimizing unanticipated changes in inflation.
|November 2001||Aggregate Price Shocks and Financial Stability: The United Kingdom 1796-1999|
with Michael D. Bordo, David C. Wheelock: w8583
This paper investigates the impact historically of aggregate price shocks on financial stability in the United Kingdom. We construct an annual index of U.K. financial conditions for 1790-1999 and use a dynamic probit model to estimate the effect of aggregate price shocks on the index. We find that price level shocks contributed significantly to financial instability during 1820-1931, and that inflation rate shocks contributed to instability during 1972-99. Both the nature of aggregate price shocks and their impact depend on the existing monetary and financial regime, but price shocks historically have been a source of financial instability.
- Bordo, Michael D., Michael J. Dueker and David C. Wheelock. "Aggregate Price Shocks And Financial Instability: A Historical Analysis," Economic Inquiry, Oct. 2002, 40(4): 521-538
- Bordo, Michael D., Michael J. Dueker and David C. Wheelock. "Aggregate Price Shocks And Financial Stability: the United Kingdom 1796-1999." Explorations in Economic History, April 2003, 40(2): 143-169 citation courtesy of
|April 2000||Aggregate Price Shocks and Financial Instability: An Historical Analysis|
with Michael D. Bordo, David C. Wheelock: w7652
This paper presents empirical evidence on the hypothesis that aggregate price disturbances cause or worsen financial instability. We construct two annual indexes of financial conditions for the United States covering 1790-1997, and estimate the effect of aggregate price shocks on each index using a dynamic ordered probit model. We find that price level shocks contributed to financial instability during 1790-1933, and that inflation rate shocks contributed to financial instability during 1980-97. Our research indicates that the size of the aggregate price shocks needed to substantially alter financial conditions depends on the institutional environment, but that a monetary policy focused on price stability would be conducive to financial stability.
Published: Bordo, Michael D., Michael J. Dueker and David C. Wheelock. "Aggregate Price Shocks And Financial Instability: A Historical Analysis," Economic Inquiry, 2002, v40(4,Oct), 521-538. citation courtesy of