Department of Health Services Research
London School of Hygiene
& Tropical Medicine
15-17 Tavistock Place
London WC1H 9SH
Institutional Affiliation: London School of Hygiene
NBER Working Papers and Publications
|December 2017||Austerity and the rise of the Nazi party|
with Gregori Galofré-Vilà, Christopher M. Meissner, David Stuckler: w24106
The current historical consensus on the economic causes of the inexorable Nazi electoral success between 1930 and 1933 suggests this was largely related to the Treaty of Versailles and the Great Depression. Alternatively, it has been speculated that contractionary fiscal austerity measures contributed to votes for the Nazi party. Voting data from 1,024 districts and 98 cities shows that Chancellor Brüning’s austerity measures (spending cuts and tax increases) were positively associated with increasing vote shares for the Nazi party. We also find that the suffering due to austerity (measured by mortality rates) radicalized the German electorate. Our findings are robust to a range of specifications including an instrumental variable strategy and a border-pair policy discontinuity design.
|August 2016||The Economic Consequences of the 1953 London Debt Agreement|
with Gregori Galofré-Vilà, Christopher M. Meissner, David Stuckler: w22557
In 1953 the Western Allied powers implemented a radical debt-relief plan that would, in due course, eliminate half of West Germany’s external debt and create a series of favourable debt repayment conditions. The London Debt Agreement (LDA) correlated with West Germany experiencing the highest rate of economic growth recorded in Europe in the 1950s and 1960s. In this paper we examine the economic consequences of this historical episode. We use new data compiled from the monthly reports of the Deutsche Bundesbank from 1948 to the 1960s. These reports not only provide detailed statistics of the German finances, but also a narrative on the evolution of the German economy on a monthly basis. These sources also contain special issues on the LDA, highlighting contemporaries’ interest in the state...