Department of Economics
302 Donald P. Jacobs Center
2001 Sheridan Road
Evanston, IL 60208
NBER Working Papers and Publications
|September 2015||Structural Change with Long-run Income and Price Effects|
with Diego A. Comin, Danial Lashkari: w21595
We present a new multi-sector growth model that accommodates long-run demand and supply drivers of structural change. The model generates nonhomothetic Engel curves at all levels of development and is consistent with the decline in agriculture, the hump-shaped evolution of manufacturing and the rise of services over time. The economy converges to a constant aggregate growth rate that depends on sectoral income elasticities, capital intensities and rates of technological progress. We estimate the demand system derived from the model using historical data on sectoral employment shares from twenty-ﬁve countries and household survey data from the US. Our estimated model parsimoniously accounts for the broad patterns of sectoral reallocation observed among rich, miracle and developing economies...
|May 2013||Technology Diffusion: Measurement, Causes and Consequences|
with Diego A. Comin: w19052
This chapter discusses different approaches pursued to explore three broad questions related to technology diffusion: what general patterns characterize the diffusion of technologies, and how have they changed over time; what are the key drivers of technology, and what are the macroeconomic consequences of technology. We prioritize in our discussion unified approaches to these three questions that are based on direct measures of technology.
|If Technology Has Arrived Everywhere, Why has Income Diverged?|
with Diego A. Comin: w19010
We study the lags with which new technologies are adopted across countries, and their long-run penetration rates once they are adopted. Using data from the last two centuries, we document two new facts: there has been convergence in adoption lags between rich and poor countries, while there has been divergence in penetration rates. Using a model of adoption and growth, we show that these changes in the pattern of technology diffusion account for 80% of the Great Income Divergence between rich and poor countries since 1820.
|September 2010||An Intensive Exploration of Technology Diffusion|
with Diego A. Comin: w16379
We present a tractable model for the analysis of the relationship between economic growth and the intensive and extensive margins of technology adoption. At the aggregate level, our model is isomorphic to a neoclassical growth model. The microeconomic underpinnings of growth come from technology adoption of firms, both at the extensive and the intensive margin. We use a data set of 15 technologies and 166 countries to estimate the intensive and extensive margin of adoption using the structural equations derived from our model. We find that the variability across countries in the intensive margin is higher than in the extensive margin. The cross country variation in intensive margin of adoption accounts for around 40% of the variation in income per capita.
Published: Technology Diffusion: Measurement, Causes and Consequences (with Diego Comin), Handbook of Economic Growth, vol. 2 .