Bank of Finland
PO Box 160
Institutional Affiliation: Bank of Finland
Information about this author at RePEc
NBER Working Papers and Publications
|January 2019||IQ, Expectations, and Choice|
with Francesco D’Acunto, Daniel Hoang, Michael Weber: w25496
Forecast errors for inflation decline monotonically with both verbal and quantitative IQ in a large and representative male population. Within individuals, inflation expectations and perceptions are autocorrelated only for men above the median by IQ (high-IQ men). High-IQ men's forecast revisions are consistent with the diagnostic-expectations framework, whereas anything goes for low-IQ men. Education levels, income, socioeconomic status, or financial constraints do not explain these results. Using ad-hoc tasks in a controlled environment, we investigate the channels behind these results. Low-IQ individuals' knowledge of the concept of inflation is low; they associate inflation with concrete goods and services instead of abstract economic concepts, and are less capable of forecasting mean-...