The Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy
NBER Working Papers and Publications
|June 2015||Simulating Russia’s and Other Large Economies’ Challenging and Interconnected Transitions|
with Seth G. Benzell, Eugene Goryunov, Laurence J. Kotlikoff, Guillermo LaGarda, Kristina Nesterova, Andrey Zubarev: w21269
This paper develops a large-scale, dynamic life-cycle model to simulate Russia’s demographic and fiscal transition under favorable and unfavorable fossil-fuel price regimes. The model includes Russia, the U.S., China, India, the EU, and Japan+ (Japan plus Korea). The model predicts dramatic increases in tax rates in the U.S., EU, India, and Russia. Indeed, the increases are so large as to question their political feasibility let alone their actual collection given the potential for tax avoidance and tax evasion.
|November 2013||Russia's Fiscal Gap|
with Eugene Goryunov, Laurence J. Kotlikoff, Arseny Mamedov, Kristina Nesterova, Vladimir Nazarov, Elena Grishina, Pavel Trunin, Alexey Shpenev: w19608
Every country faces what economists call an intertemporal (across time) budget constraint, which requires that its government's future expenditures, including the servicing of its outstanding official debt, be covered by its government's future receipts when measured in present value. The difference between the present value of a country's future expenditures and its future receipts is called its fiscal gap.
This study estimates Russia's 2013 fiscal gap at 890 trillion rubles or $28 trillion. This longterm budget shortfall is 8.4 percent of the present value of projected GDP. Consequently, eliminating Russia's fiscal gap on a smooth basis requires fiscal tightening by 8.4 percent of each future year's projected GDP.
One means of doing this is to immediately and permanently raise all Russ...