University of Oslo
Department of Economics
Post Box 1095 Blindern
NBER Working Papers and Publications
|August 2018||Incarceration Spillovers in Criminal and Family Networks|
with Gordon B. Dahl, Katrine V. Løken, Magne Mogstad: w24878
Using quasi-random assignment of criminal cases to judges, we estimate large incarceration spillovers in criminal and brother networks. When a defendant is sent to prison, there are 51 and 32 percentage point reductions in the probability his criminal network members and younger brothers will be charged with a crime, respectively, over the ensuing four years. Correlational evidence misleadingly finds small positive effects. These spillovers are of first order importance for policy, as the network reductions in future crimes committed are larger than the direct effect on the incarcerated defendant.
|January 2018||Intergenerational Effects of Incarceration|
with Gordon B. Dahl, Katrine V. Løken, Magne Mogstad: w24227
An often overlooked population in discussions of prison reform is the children of inmates. How a child is affected depends both on what incarceration does to their parent and what they learn from their parent's experience. To overcome endogeneity concerns, we exploit the random assignment of judges who differ in their propensity to send defendants to prison. Using longitudinal data for Norway, we find that imprisonment has no effect on fathers’ recidivism but reduces their employment by 20 percentage points. We find no evidence that paternal incarceration affects a child's criminal activity or school performance.
Published: Manudeep Bhuller & Gordon B. Dahl & Katrine V. Loken & Magne Mogstad, 2018. "Intergenerational Effects of Incarceration," AEA Papers and Proceedings, vol 108, pages 234-40.
|September 2016||Incarceration, Recidivism and Employment|
with Gordon B. Dahl, Katrine V. Løken, Magne Mogstad: w22648
Understanding whether, and in what situations, time spent in prison is criminogenic or preventive has proven challenging due to data availability and correlated unobservables. This paper overcomes these challenges in the context of Norway’s criminal justice system, offering new insights into how incarceration affects subsequent crime and employment. We construct a panel dataset containing the criminal behavior and labor market outcomes of the entire population, and exploit the random assignment of criminal cases to judges who differ systematically in their stringency in sentencing defendants to prison. Using judge stringency as an instrumental variable, we find that imprisonment discourages further criminal behavior, and that the reduction extends beyond incapacitation. Incarceration decre...
|June 2014||Life Cycle Earnings, Education Premiums and Internal Rates of Return|
with Magne Mogstad, Kjell G. Salvanes: w20250
What do the education premiums look like over the life cycle? What is the impact of schooling on lifetime earnings? How does the internal rate of return compare with opportunity cost of funds? To what extent do progressive taxes attenuate the incentives to invest in education? This paper exploits Norwegian population panel data with nearly career long earnings histories to answer these important questions. We provide a detailed picture of the causal relationship between schooling and earnings over the life cycle, following individuals over their working lifespan. To account for endogeneity of schooling, we apply three commonly used identification strategies. Our estimates show that additional schooling gives higher lifetime earnings and steeper age-earnings profile, in line with prediction...
Published: Manudeep Bhuller & Magne Mogstad & Kjell G. Salvanes, 2017. "Life-Cycle Earnings, Education Premiums, and Internal Rates of Return," Journal of Labor Economics, vol 35(4), pages 993-1030. citation courtesy of