Center for International Governance Innovation (CI
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NBER Working Papers and Publications
|May 2013||The 1991 Reforms, Indian Economic Growth, and Social Progress|
with John Whalley: w19024
This paper analyzes the effects of the reforms initiated in India following the balance of payments (BOP) crisis of 1991 on economic performance. We do not find persuasive the contention of many analysts that growth accelerated after the mid-1980s when reforms were initiated. Nor does statistical analysis support the contention that reforms in the mid-1980s resulted in a growth acceleration. We show that there is an accelerating rate of growth of GDP after the mid 1970s and it is difficult to relate this gradual acceleration to specific policy changes. The changed policies in the 1980s did not mean a basic change in the policy framework. Furthermore, since corporate investment as a share of GDP did not increase in the 1980s it is difficult to identify the mechanism by which the more pro-bu...
|China and India: Reforms and the Response: How Differently have the Economies Behaved|
with John Whalley: w19006
The relative performance of China and India is compared using two different methods and they provide a very different picture of their relative performance. We compare the average absolute values of indictors for the decade of the 1980s, 1990s and the 2000s. We use indicators such as the current account balance (CAB), exports of goods and services (XGS), foreign direct investment inflow (FDI), gross domestic savings, gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), aid, private capital inflows (PrK) and workers' remittances, all as a percentage of GDP. We also look at the growth rate of per capita GDP, exports of goods and services and of gross fixed capital formation.
Using a two tailed- test we find that China does better than India for most of these indicators. For instance, China has a higher g...
Published: M. K. AGARWAL, 1988. "India and China," Nature, vol 333(6171), pages 292-293.
|December 2011||Linking External Sector Imbalances and Changing Financial Instability before the 2008 Financial Crisis|
with John Whalley, Jing Wang, Sean Walsh, Chen Yan: w17645
The G20 Framework for Strong, Sustainable and Balanced Growth builds on the claim that growing imbalances before the 2008 Financial Crisis were a major cause of the crisis, and the further claim that reducing imbalances post crisis must be a central part of any effort to prevent a further occurrence. Analytical literature in economics seemingly does not provide satisfactory measures of financial instability, either in individual national economies or in the combined global economy; nor ways of linking imbalance change to either worsening or improving financial (or real) instability and the onset of financial crises.
Here we focus on the external sector component of financial instability and link changes in country imbalances to individual economy growth rates in ways when summed across...
Published: “External Sector Rebalancing and Endogenous Trade Imbalance Models.” Contemporary Economics 6 (4), October 2012, pp. 20-26.