NBER Working Papers and Publications
|June 1991||No News is Good News: An Asymmetric Model of Changing Volatility in Stock Returns|
with John Y. Campbell: w3742
It is sometimes argued that an increase in stock market volatility raises required stock returns, and thus lowers stock prices. This paper modifies the generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic (GARCH) model of returns to allow for this volatility feedback effect. The resulting model is asymmetric, because volatility feedback amplifies large negative stock returns and dampens large positive returns, making stock returns negatively skewed and increasing the potential for large crashes. The model also implies that volatility feedback is more important when volatility is high. In U.S. monthly and daily data in the period 1926-88, the asymmetric model fits the data better than the standard GARCH model, accounting for almost half the skewness and excess kurtosis of standard month...
Published: Journal of Financial Economics vol. 31, 1992, p. 281-318 citation courtesy of