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NBER Working Papers and Publications
|January 2006||Common Failings: How Corporate Defaults are Correlated|
with Sanjiv Das, Darrell Duffie, Nikunj Kapadia: w11961
We develop, and apply to data on U.S. corporations from 1979-2004, tests of the standard doubly-stochastic assumption under which firms'default times are correlated only as implied by the correlation of factors determining their default intensities. This assumption is violated in the presence of contagion or "frailty" (unobservable explanatory variables that are correlated across firms). Our tests do not depend on the time-series properties of default intensities. The data do not support the joint hypothesis of well specified default intensities and the doubly-stochastic assumption. There is also some evidence of default clustering in excess of that implied by the doubly-stochastic model with the given intensities.
Published: Das, Sanjiv R., Darrell Duffie, Nikunj Kapadia, and Leandro Saita. "Common Failings: How Corporate Defoults are Correlated." Journal of Finance 62, 1 (February 2007): 93-117. citation courtesy of
|Multi-Period Corporate Default Prediction With Stochastic Covariates|
with Darrell Duffie, Ke Wang: w11962
We provide maximum likelihood estimators of term structures of conditional probabilities of corporate default, incorporating the dynamics of firm-specific and macroeconomic covariates. For U.S. Industrial firms, based on over 390,000 firm-months of data spanning 1979 to 2004, the level and shape of the estimated term structure of conditional future default probabilities depends on a firm's distance to default (a volatility-adjusted measure of leverage), on the firm's trailing stock return, on trailing S&P 500 returns, and on U.S. interest rates, among other covariates. Distance to default is the most influential covariate. Default intensities are estimated to be lower with higher short-term interest rates. The out-of-sample predictive performance of the model is an improvement over that ...
Published: Duffie, Darrell, Leandro Saita and Ke Wang. "Multi-Period Corporate Default Prediction with Stochastic Covariates." Journal of Financial Economics 83 (2007): 635-665. citation courtesy of