Laura A. Bakkensen
University of Arizona
School of Government & Public Policy
315 Social Science
P.O. Box 210027
Tucson, AZ 85721-0027
NBER Working Papers and Publications
|August 2018||Climate Shocks, Cyclones, and Economic Growth: Bridging the Micro-Macro Gap|
with Lint Barrage: w24893
Empirical analyses of the impacts of climatic shocks on growth, while critical for policy, have found seemingly disparate results and are seldom incorporated into macroeconomic climate-economy models. This paper seeks to bridge this micro-macro gap through the case of tropical cyclones. We first present a stochastic endogenous growth model that can reconcile previous empirical findings. We then empirically estimate the impacts of cyclones on the structural determinants of growth (total factor productivity, depreciation, fatalities), instead of growth itself, facilitating direct inclusion into the seminal DICE climate-economy model. Cyclone damages are estimated to increase the social cost of carbon by 10-15%.
|September 2017||Flood Risk Belief Heterogeneity and Coastal Home Price Dynamics: Going Under Water?|
with Lint Barrage: w23854
How will climate risk beliefs affect coastal housing market dynamics? This paper provides both theoretical and empirical evidence: First, we build a dynamic housing market model with heterogeneity in home types, consumer preferences, and flood risk beliefs. The model incorporates a Bayesian learning mechanism allowing agents to update their beliefs depending on whether flood events occur. Second, to quantify these elements, we implement a door-to-door survey campaign in Rhode Island. The results confirm significant heterogeneity in flood risk beliefs, and that selection into coastal homes is driven by both lower risk perceptions and higher coastal amenity values. Third, we calibrate the model to simulate coastal home price trajectories given a future flood risk increase and policy reform a...