NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Kermit L. Schoenholtz

NYU Stern School of Business
Department of Economics
Office 7-181
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New York, New York 10012
Tel: (212) 998-0866

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NBER Working Papers and Publications

July 2010Financial Conditions Indexes: A Fresh Look after the Financial Crisis
with Jan Hatzius, Peter Hooper, Frederic S. Mishkin, Mark W. Watson: w16150
This paper explores the link between financial conditions and economic activity. We first review existing measures, including both single indicators and composite financial conditions indexes (FCIs). We then build a new FCI that features three key innovations. First, besides interest rates and asset prices, it includes a broad range of quantitative and survey-based indicators. Second, our use of unbalanced panel estimation techniques results in a longer time series (back to 1970) than available for other indexes. Third, we control for past GDP growth and inflation and thus focus on the predictive power of financial conditions for future economic activity. During most of the past two decades for which comparisons are possible, including the last five years, our FCI shows a tighter li...

Published: U.S. Monetary Policy Forum: “Financial Conditions Indexes: A Fresh Look After the Financial Crisis,” (with Jan Hatzius, Peter Hooper, Frederic Mishkin, Kermit L. Schoenholtz and Mark W. Watson) U.S. Monetary Policy Forum (Chicago: Chicago Booth Initiative on Global Markets, 2010) pp. 3-59.

February 2010How Central Bankers See It: The First Decade of European Central Bank Policy and Beyond
with Stephen G. Cecchetti
in Europe and the Euro, Alberto Alesina and Francesco Giavazzi, editors
November 2008How Central Bankers See It: The First Decade of ECB Policy and Beyond
with Stephen G. Cecchetti: w14489
In this history of the first decade of ECB policy, we also discuss key challenges for the next decade. Beyond the ECB's track record and an array of published critiques, our analysis relies on unique source material: extensive interviews with current and former ECB leaders and with other policymakers and scholars who viewed the evolution of the ECB from privileged vantage points. We share the assessment of our interviewees that the ECB has enjoyed many more successes than disappointments. These successes reflect both the ECB's design and implementation. Looking forward, we highlight the unique challenges posed by enlargement and, especially, by the euro area's complex arrangements for guarding financial stability. In the latter case, the key issues are coordination in a crisis and harmoniz...
 
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