NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Kenneth Wolpin

Department of Economics
University of Pennsylvania
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NBER Working Papers and Publications

October 2013To Hold Out or Not to Hold Out
with Frank Schorfheide: w19565
A recent literature has developed that combines two prominent empirical approaches to ex ante policy evaluation: randomized controlled trials (RCT) and structural estimation. The RCT provides a "gold-standard'' estimate of a particular treatment, but only of that treatment. Structural estimation provides the capability to extrapolate beyond the experimental treatment, but is based on untestable assumptions and is subject to structural data mining. Combining the approaches by holding out from the structural estimation exercise either the treatment or control sample allows for external validation of the underlying behavioral model. Although intuitively appealing, this holdout methodology is not well grounded. For instance, it is easy to show that it is suboptimal from a Bayesian perspec...

Published: Schorfheide, Frank & Wolpin, Kenneth I., 2016. "To hold out or not to hold out," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 332-345. citation courtesy of

August 1975Education and Screening
w0102
Section I introduces the material. In section II a model is developed which explores the impact of input-quality uncertainty on factor demand from which is derived a rationale for the use of devices which segment the population into classes differing in their "skill" distribution parameters. The model, however, ignores the motivation of individuals to acquire the characteristics upon which firms screen, in particular, the greater incentive for the more productive to purchase the screen. This aspect has been explored by Spence (1973) and Stiglitz (1973) and will not be explicitly considered here. In section III the social value of schooling's informational context is derived within the preceeding framework. Section IV describes some empirical attempts to isolate the productivity and identif...

Published: American Economic Review, Vol. 67, no. 5 (1977): 949-958.

 
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