Department of Economics
University of Houston
3623 Cullen Blvd.
Houston, TX 77204
NBER Program Affiliations:
NBER Affiliation: Research Associate
Information about this author at RePEc
NBER Working Papers and Publications
|December 2012||The Great Trade Collapse|
with Rudolfs Bems, Robert C. Johnson: w18632
We survey recent literature on the causes of the collapse in international trade during the 2008-2009 global recession. We argue that the evidence points to the collapse in aggregate expenditure, concentrated on trade-intensive durable goods, as the main driver of the trade collapse. Inventory adjustment likely amplified the impact of these expenditure changes on trade. In addition, shocks to credit supply constrained export supply further exacerbating the decline in trade. Most evidence suggests that changes in trade policy did not play a large role. We conclude that one benefit of the trade collapse is that it has stimulated research in neglected areas at the intersection of trade and macroeconomics.
Published: Rudolfs Bems & Robert C. Johnson & Kei-Mu Yi, 2013. "The Great Trade Collapse," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 375-400, 05. citation courtesy of