NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Ke Wang

Federal Reserve Board

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NBER Working Papers and Publications

January 2006Multi-Period Corporate Default Prediction With Stochastic Covariates
with Darrell Duffie, Leandro Siata: w11962
We provide maximum likelihood estimators of term structures of conditional probabilities of corporate default, incorporating the dynamics of firm-specific and macroeconomic covariates. For U.S. Industrial firms, based on over 390,000 firm-months of data spanning 1979 to 2004, the level and shape of the estimated term structure of conditional future default probabilities depends on a firm's distance to default (a volatility-adjusted measure of leverage), on the firm's trailing stock return, on trailing S&P 500 returns, and on U.S. interest rates, among other covariates. Distance to default is the most influential covariate. Default intensities are estimated to be lower with higher short-term interest rates. The out-of-sample predictive performance of the model is an improvement over that ...

Published: Duffie, Darrell, Leandro Saita and Ke Wang. "Multi-Period Corporate Default Prediction with Stochastic Covariates." Journal of Financial Economics 83 (2007): 635-665. citation courtesy of

September 2004Multi-Period Corporate Failure Prediction with Stochastic Covariates
with Darrell Duffie: w10743
We provide maximum likelihood estimators of term structures of conditional probabilities of bankruptcy over relatively long time horizons, incorporating the dynamics of firm-specific and macroeconomic covariates. We find evidence in the U.S. industrial machinery and instruments sector, based on over 28,000 firm-quarters of data spanning 1971 to 2001, of significant dependence of the level and shape of the term structure of conditional future bankruptcy probabilities on a firm's distance to default (a volatility-adjusted measure of leverage) and on U.S. personal income growth, among other covariates.Variation in a firm's distance to default has a greater relative effect on the term structure of future failure hazard rates than does a comparatively sized change in U.S. personal income growth...

Published: Duffie, Darrell, Leandro Saita and Ke Wang. "Multi-Period Corporate Default Prediction with Stochastic Covariates,." Journal of Financial Economics 83 (2007): 635-665.

 
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