New York University
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New York, NY 10012
NBER Working Papers and Publications
|February 2016||Endogenous Technology Adoption and R&D as Sources of Business Cycle Persistence|
with Diego Anzoategui, Diego Comin, Mark Gertler: w22005
We examine the hypothesis that the slowdown in productivity following the Great Recession was in significant part an endogenous response to the contraction in demand that induced the downturn. We first present some panel data evidence that technology diffusion is highly cyclical. We then develop and estimate a macroeconomic model with an endogenous TFP mechanism that allows for both costly development and adoption of new technologies. We then show that the model's implied cyclicality of technology diffusion is consistent with the panel data evidence. We next use the model to assess the sources of the productivity slowdown. We find that a significant fraction of the post- Great Recession fall in productivity was an endogenous phenomenon. The endogenous productivity mechanism also helps acco...
|May 2015||Runs versus Lemons: Information Disclosure and Fiscal Capacity|
with Miguel Faria-e-Castro, Thomas Philippon: w21201
We study the optimal use of disclosure and fiscal backstops during financial crises. Providing information can reduce adverse selection in credit markets, but negative disclosures can also trigger inefficient bank runs. In our model governments are thus forced to choose between runs and lemons. A fiscal backstop mitigates the risk of runs and allows a government to pursue a high disclosure strategy. Our model explains why governments with strong fiscal positions are more likely to run informative stress tests, and, paradoxically, how they can end up spending less than governments that are more fiscally constrained.