NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Jorge Guzman

MIT Sloan School of Management
100 Main Street, E62-484
Cambridge, MA. 02139
Tel: (617) 639-4412

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NBER Working Papers and Publications

August 2016Nowcasting and Placecasting Entrepreneurial Quality and Performance
with Scott Stern
in Measuring Entrepreneurial Businesses: Current Knowledge and Challenges, John Haltiwanger, Erik Hurst, Javier Miranda, and Antoinette Schoar, editors
A central challenge in the measurement of entrepreneurship is accounting for the wide variation in entrepreneurial quality across firms. This paper develops a new approach for estimating entrepreneurial quality by linking the probability of a growth outcome (e.g., achieving an IPO or a significant acquisition) as a function of start-up characteristics observable at or near the time of initial business registration (e.g., the firm name or filing for a trademark/patent). Our approach allows us to characterize entrepreneurial quality at an arbitrary level of geographic granularity (placecasting) and in advance of observing the ultimate growth outcomes associated with any cohort of start-ups (nowcasting). We implement this approach in Massachusetts from 1988-2014, yielding several key findings...
March 2016The State of American Entrepreneurship: New Estimates of the Quantity and Quality of Entrepreneurship for 15 US States, 1988-2014
with Scott Stern: w22095
While official measures of business dynamism have seen a long-term decline, early-stage venture financing of new companies has reached levels not observed since the late 1990s, resulting in a sharp debate about the state of American entrepreneurship. Building on Guzman and Stern (2015a; 2015b), this paper offers new evidence to inform this debate by estimating measures of entrepreneurial quality based on predictive analytics and comprehensive business registries. Our estimates suggest that the probability of a significant growth outcome (either an IPO or high-value acquisition) is highly skewed and predicted by observables at or near the time of business registration: 69% of realized growth events are in the top 5% of our estimated growth distribution. This high level of skewness motiv...
February 2015Nowcasting and Placecasting Entrepreneurial Quality and Performance
with Scott Stern: w20954
A central challenge in the measurement of entrepreneurship is accounting for the wide variation in entrepreneurial quality across firms. This paper develops a new approach for estimating entrepreneurial quality by linking the probability of a growth outcome (e.g., achieving an IPO or a significant acquisition) as a function of start-up characteristics observable at or near the time of initial business registration (e.g., the firm name or filing for a trademark/patent). Our approach allows us to characterize entrepreneurial quality at an arbitrary level of geographic granularity (placecasting) and in advance of observing the ultimate growth outcomes associated with any cohort of start-ups (nowcasting). We implement this approach in Massachusetts from 1988-2014, yielding several key findi...

Published: Nowcasting and Placecasting Entrepreneurial Quality and Performance, Jorge Guzman, Scott Stern. in Measuring Entrepreneurial Businesses: Current Knowledge and Challenges, Haltiwanger, Hurst, Miranda, and Schoar. 2017

 
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