John Morgan

Haas School, UC, Berkeley
545 Student Services Building, #1900
Berkeley, CA 94720-1900

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NBER Working Papers and Publications

January 2017One in a Million: Field Experiments on Perceived Closeness of the Election and Voter Turnout
with Alan Gerber, Mitchell Hoffman, Collin Raymond: w23071
A common feature of many models of voter turnout is that increasing the perceived closeness of the election should increase voter turnout. However, cleanly testing this prediction is difficult and little is known about voter beliefs regarding the closeness of a given race. We conduct a field experiment during the 2010 US gubernatorial elections where we elicit voter beliefs about the closeness of the election before and after showing different polls, which, depending on treatment, indicate a close race or a not close race. We find that subjects update their beliefs in response to new information, but systematically overestimate the probability of a very close election. However, the decision to vote is unaffected by beliefs about the closeness of the election. A follow-up field experiment, ...
September 2007Leadership in Groups: A Monetary Policy Experiment
with Alan S. Blinder: w13391
In an earlier paper (Blinder and Morgan, 2005), we created an experimental apparatus in which Princeton University students acted as ersatz central bankers, making monetary policy decisions both as individuals and in groups. In this study, we manipulate the size and leadership structure of monetary policy decisionmaking. We find no evidence of superior performance by groups that have designated leaders. Groups without such leaders do as well as or better than groups with well-defined leaders. Furthermore, we find rather little difference between the performance of four-person and eight-person groups; the larger groups outperform the smaller groups by a very small margin. Finally, we successfully replicate our Princeton results, at least qualitatively: Groups perform better than individuals...

Published: Alan S. Blinder & John Morgan, 2008. "Leadership in Groups: A Monetary Policy Experiment," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(4), pages 117-150, December. citation courtesy of

September 2000Are Two Heads Better Than One?: An Experimental Analysis of Group vs. Individual Decisionmaking
with Alan S. Blinder: w7909
Two laboratory experiments - one a statistical urn problem, the other a monetary policy experiment - were run to test the commonly-believed hypothesis that groups make decisions more slowly than individuals do. Surprisingly, this turns out not to be true there is no significant difference in average decision lags. Furthermore, and also surprisingly, there is no significant difference in the decision lag when groups decisions are made by majority rule versus when they are made under a unanimity requirement. In addition, group decisions are on average superior to individual decisions. The results are strikingly similar across the two experiments.

Published: Blinder, Alan S. and John Morgan. "Are Two Heads Better Than One? Monetary Policy By Committee," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2005, v37(5,Oct), 789-811.

July 1996Implementing Results-Oriented Trade Policies: The Case of the US-Japanese Auto Parts Dispute
with Kala Krishna: w5680
Why would the US threaten punitive tariffs on luxury autos to implement a market share target in auto parts? We show that by making threats to a linked market, a market share may be implemented with fairly weak informa- tional and administrative requirements. Moreover, such policies can be both pro-competitive and advatageous to US firms.

Published: European Economic Review, Vol.42, no.8 (October 1998): 1443-1467. citation courtesy of

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