John Krainer

Research Department
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
P.O. Box 7702
San Francisco, CA 94120

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NBER Working Papers and Publications

August 2006The Welfare Consequences of ATM Surcharges: Evidence from a Structural Entry Model
with Gautam Gowrisankaran: w12443
We estimate a structural model of the market for automatic teller machines (ATMs) in order to evaluate the implications of regulating ATM surcharges on ATM entry and consumer and producer surplus. We estimate the model using data on firm and consumer locations, and identify the parameters of the model by exploiting a source of local quasi-experimental variation, that the state of Iowa banned ATM surcharges during our sample period while the state of Minnesota did not. We develop new econometric methods that allow us to estimate the parameters of equilibrium models without computing equilibria. Monte Carlo evidence shows that the estimator performs well. We find that a ban on ATM surcharges reduces ATM entry by about 12 percent, increases consumer welfare by about 35 percent and lowers prod...
February 2006Estimating Static Models of Strategic Interaction
with Patrick Bajari, Han Hong, Denis Nekipelov: w12013
We propose a method for estimating static games of incomplete information. A static game is a generalization of a discrete choice model, such as a multinomial logit or probit, which allows the actions of a group of agents to be interdependent. Unlike most earlier work, the method we propose is semiparametric and does not require the covariates to lie in a discrete set. While the estimator we propose is quite flexible, we demonstrate that in most cases it can be easily implemented using standard statistical packages such as STATA. We also propose an algorithm for simulating the model which finds all equilibria to the game. As an application of our estimator, we study recommendations for high technology stocks between 1998-2003. We find that strategic motives, typically ignored in the empiri...

Published: Estimating Static Models of Strategic Interactions (with Han Hong, John Krainer and Denis Nekipelov), Journal of Business and Economic Statistics Oct 2010, Vol. 28, No. 4, 469-482 citation courtesy of

August 2004An Empirical Model of Stock Analysts' Recommendations: Market Fundamentals, Conflicts of Interest, and Peer Effects
with Patrick Bajari: w10665
In this paper we develop an empirical model of equity analyst recommendations for firms in the NASDAQ 100 during 1998-2003. In the model we allow recommendations to depend on publicly observed information, measures of an analyst's beliefs about a stock's future earnings, investment banking activity, and peer group effects which determine industry norms. To address the reflection problem, we propose a new approach to identification and estimation of models with peer effects suggested by recent work on estimating games. Our empirical results suggest that recommendations depend most heavily on publicly observable information about the stocks and on industry norms. In most of our specifications, the existence of an investment banking deal does not have a statistically significant relationship ...
June 2003House Prices and Consumer Welfare
with Patrick Bajari, C. Lanier Benkard: w9783
We develop a new approach to measuring changes in consumer welfare due to changes in the price of owner-occupied housing. In our approach, an agent's welfare adjustment is defined as the transfer required to keep expected discounted utility constant given a change in current home prices. We demonstrate that, up to a first-order approximation, there is no aggregate change in welfare due to price increases in the existing housing stock. This follows from a simple market clearing condition where capital gains experienced by sellers are exactly offset by welfare losses to buyers. Welfare losses can occur, however, from price increases in new construction and renovations. We show that this result holds (approximately) even in a model that accounts for changes in consumption and investment plans...

Published: Bajari, Patrick, C. Lanier Benkard and John Krainer. "House Prices And Consumer Welfare," Journal of Urban Economics, 2005, v58(3,Nov), 474-487. citation courtesy of

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