NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Jeremy Magruder

Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics
University of California at Berkeley
207 Giannini Hall
Berkeley, CA 94720-3310
Tel: 510/643-8742

E-Mail: EmailAddress: hidden: you can email any NBER-related person as first underscore last at nber dot org
WWW:
NBER Program Affiliations: DEV
NBER Affiliation: Research Associate

NBER Working Papers and Publications

June 2017Split-Sample Strategies for Avoiding False Discoveries
with Michael L. Anderson: w23544
Preanalysis plans (PAPs) have become an important tool for limiting false discoveries in field experiments. We evaluate the properties of an alternate approach which splits the data into two samples: An exploratory sample and a confirmation sample. When hypotheses are homogeneous, we describe an improved split-sample approach that achieves 90% of the rejections of the optimal PAP without requiring preregistration or constraints on specification search in the exploratory sample. When hypotheses are heterogeneous in priors or intrinsic interest, we find that a hybrid approach which prespecifies hypotheses with high weights and priors and uses a split-sample approach to test additional hypotheses can have power gains over any pure PAP. We assess this approach using the community-driven develo...
 
Publications
Activities
Meetings
NBER Videos
Themes
Data
People
About

National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Ave., Cambridge, MA 02138; 617-868-3900; email: info@nber.org

Contact Us