Jeffrey R. Russell
University of Chicago
Graduate School of Business
1101 East 58th Street
Chicago, IL 60637
NBER Working Papers and Publications
|December 1994||Forecasting Transaction Rates: The Autoregressive Conditional Duration Model|
with Robert F. Engle: w4966
This paper will propose a new statistical model for the analysis of data that does not arrive in equal time intervals such as financial transactions data, telephone calls, or sales data on commodities that are tracked electronically. In contrast to fixed interval analysis, the model treats the time between observation arrivals as a stochastic time varying process and therefore is in the spirit of the models of time deformation initially proposed by Tauchen and Pitts (1983), Clark (1973) and more recently discussed by Stock (1988), Lamoureux and Lastrapes (1992), Muller et al. (1990) and Ghysels and Jasiak (1994) but does not require auxiliary data or assumptions on the causes of time flow. Strong evidence is provided for duration clustering beyond a deterministic component for the financ...
Published: (Published as "Autoregressive Conditional Duration: A New Model for Irregularly Spaced Tranaction Rates") Econometrica, Vol. 66 (1998): 1127-1162.