Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance
Information about this author at RePEc
NBER Working Papers and Publications
|February 2017||Short-Run Effects of Lower Productivity Growth. A Twist on the Secular Stagnation Hypothesis|
with Olivier Blanchard, Guido Lorenzoni: w23160
Since 2010, U.S. GDP growth has been anemic, averaging 2.1% a year, and this despite interest rates very close to zero. Historically, one would have expected such low sustained rates to lead to much stronger demand. They have not. For a while, one could point to plausible culprits, from a weak financial system to fiscal consolidation. But, as time passed, the financial system strengthened, fiscal consolidation came to an end, and still growth did not pick up. We argue that this is due, in large part, not to legacies of the past but to lower optimism about the future, more specifically to downward revisions in forecast potential growth. Put simply, the anticipation of a less bright future is leading to temporarily weaker demand. If our explanation is correct, it has important implicatio...
Published: Olivier Blanchard & Guido Lorenzoni & Jean-Paul L’Huillier, 2017. "Short-run effects of lower productivity growth. A twist on the secular stagnation hypothesis," Journal of Policy Modeling, .
|May 2009||News, Noise, and Fluctuations: An Empirical Exploration|
with Olivier J. Blanchard, Guido Lorenzoni: w15015
We explore empirically models of aggregate fluctuations with two basic ingredients: agents form anticipations about the future based on noisy sources of information; these anticipations affect spending and output in the short run. Our objective is to separate fluctuations due to actual changes in fundamentals (news) from those due to temporary errors in the private sector's estimates of these fundamentals (noise). Using a simple model where the consumption random walk hypothesis holds exactly, we address some basic methodological issues and take a first pass at the data. First, we show that if the econometrician has no informational advantage over the agents in the model, structural VARs cannot be used to identify news and noise shocks. Next, we develop a structural Maximum Likelihood appr...
Published: Olivier J. Blanchard & Jean-Paul L'Huillier & Guido Lorenzoni, 2013. "News, Noise, and Fluctuations: An Empirical Exploration," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(7), pages 3045-70, December. citation courtesy of