Health Policy Center
Institute for Health Research and Policy
University of Illinois at Chicago
1747 West Roosevelt Rd.
Chicago, IL 60608
Tel: (Tel) 312-355-0195
NBER Working Papers and Publications
|June 2016||The Influence of Geography and Measurement in Estimating Cigarette Price Responsiveness|
with Michael F. Pesko, John A. Tauras, Frank J. Chaloupka, IV: w22296
We use data from the Tobacco Use Supplements to the Current Population Survey from 2006-2015 to calculate cigarette price elasticities of demand using four alternative cigarette tax/price measures that compensate for the local tax environment to various extents. We use both state-level prices and local-level prices from 386 sub-state areas of the United States. We estimate a price elasticity of total demand of -0.38 using the price measure most strongly compensating for the local tax environment, and significantly lower elasticities for other popular cigarette price measures. We also find greater price responsiveness for adults that are younger, higher income, and higher educated.
|May 2016||The Effect of Cigarette Prices on Cigarette Sales: Exploring Heterogeneity in Price Elasticities at High and Low Prices|
with John A. Tauras, Michael F. Pesko, Frank J. Chaloupka, Matthew C. Farrelly: w22251
Numerous studies have examined the effect of cigarette prices on cigarette consumption. These studies either evaluate the price elasticity of demand for each observation and report the average price elasticity across all observations or report the price elasticity of demand at the mean of the price variable. Policy makers rely on these average price elasticity estimates for public health and revenue generation purposes. The use of an average price elasticity may yield misleading predictions given the substantial variation in cigarette prices between states. This research is the first econometric study to examine the price elasticity of cigarette demand at different price levels. We use aggregate state-level data for years 1991 – 2012 and employ generalized linear models with log link ...
|April 2012||The Impact of the 2009 Federal Tobacco Excise Tax Increase on Youth Tobacco Use|
with Frank J. Chaloupka, IV: w18026
This study examined the impact of the 2009 federal tobacco excise tax increase on the use of cigarettes and smokeless tobacco products among youth using the Monitoring the Future survey, a nationally representative survey of 8th, 10th, and 12th grade students. The results of this analysis showed that this tax increase had a substantial short-term impact. The percentage of students who reported smoking in the past 30 days dropped between 9.7% and 13.3% immediately following the tax increase, depending on model specifications, and the percentage of students who reported using smokeless tobacco products dropped between 16% and 24%. It is estimated that there would have been approximately 220,000 - 287,000 more current smokers and 135,000 - 203,000 more smokeless tobacco users among middle sch...