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NBER Working Papers and Publications
|December 2017||Valuing Government Obligations When Markets are Incomplete|
with Laurence J. Kotlikoff: w24092
Determining how to value net government obligations is a long-standing and fundamental question in public finance. Its answer is critical to cost-benefit analysis, the assessment of fiscal sustainability, generational accounting, and other economic issues. This paper posits and simulates a ten-period overlapping generations model with aggregate shocks to price safe and risky government net obligations, including options. Agents can't trade with future generations to hedge the model's productivity and depreciation shocks. Nor can they invest in anything other than one-period bonds and risky capital. Our results are surprising. We find that the pricing of short- as well as long-dated riskless obligations is anchored to the prevailing one-period risk-free return. More surprising, the prices o...
|June 2013||Generational Risk - Is It a Big Deal?: Simulating an 80-Period OLG Model with Aggregate Shocks|
with Laurence J. Kotlikoff: w19179
The theoretical literature on generational risk assumes that this risk is large and that the government can effectively share it. To assess these assumptions, this paper calibrates and simulates 80-period, 40-period, and 20-period overlapping generations (OLG) life-cycle models with aggregate productivity shocks.
Previous solution methods could not handle large-scale OLG models such as ours due to the well-known curse of dimensionality. The prior state of the art uses sparse-grid methods to handle 10 to 30 periods depending on the model's realism. Other methods used to solve large-scale, multi- period life-cycle models rely on either local approximations or summary statistics of state variables. We employ and extend a recent algorithm by Judd, Maliar, and Maliar (2009, 2011), which restr...