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NBER Working Papers and Publications
|July 2006||Optimizing the Retirement Portfolio: Asset Allocation, Annuitization, and Risk Aversion|
with Wolfram J. Horneff, Raimond Maurer, Olivia S. Mitchell: w12392
Retirees must draw down their accumulated assets in an orderly fashion so as not to exhaust their funds too soon. We derive the optimal retirement portfolio from a menu that includes payout annuities as well as an investment allocation and a withdrawal strategy, assuming risk aversion, stochastic capital markets, and uncertain lifetimes. The resulting portfolio allocation, when fixed as of retirement, is then compared to phased withdrawal strategies such a %u201Cself-annuitization%u201D plan or the 401(k) %u201Cdefault%u201D pattern encouraged under US tax law. Surprisingly, the fixed percentage approach proves appealing for retirees across a wide range of risk preferences, supporting financial planning advisors who often recommend this rule. We then permit the retiree to switch to an annu...
|April 2005||Betting on Death and Capital Markets in Retirement: A Shortfall Risk Analysis of Life Annuities|
with Raimond Maurer, Olivia S. Mitchell: w11271
Retirees must draw down their accumulated assets in an orderly fashion, so as not to exhaust their funds too soon. We compare alternative phased withdrawal strategies to a life annuity benchmark using German data; one particular phased withdrawal rule seems attractive, as it offers relatively low expected shortfall risk, good expected payouts for the retiree during his life, and some bequest potential; results are similar for the US case. Delayed annuitization may also appeal, as it offers higher expected benefits with lower expected shortfalls. Requiring unisex mortality tables in annuity pric-ing raises women's risks under a phased withdrawal program.
Published: Dus, Ivica, Raimond Maurer and Olivia S. Mitchell. "Betting On Death And Capital Marekts In Retirement: A Shortfall Risk Analysis Of Life Annuities Versus Phased Withdrawal Plans," Financial Services Review, 2005, v14(3,Fall), 169-196.