Wisconsin School of Business
University of Wisconsin
53706 Madison, WI
Tel: (608) 890-2595
NBER Working Papers and Publications
|September 2012||A Long-Run Risks Explanation of Predictability Puzzles in Bond and Currency Markets|
with Ravi Bansal: w18357
We show that bond risk-premia rise with uncertainty about expected inflation and fall with uncertainty about expected growth; the magnitude of return predictability using these two uncertainty measures is similar to that by multiple yields. Motivated by this evidence, we develop and estimate a long-run risks model with time-varying volatilities of expected growth and inflation. The model simultaneously accounts for bond return predictability and violations of uncovered interest parity in currency markets. We find that preference for early resolution of uncertainty, time-varying volatilities, and non-neutral effects of inflation on growth are important to account for these aspects of asset markets.
Published: Ravi Bansal & Ivan Shaliastovich, 2013. "A Long-Run Risks Explanation of Predictability Puzzles in Bond and Currency Markets," Review of Financial Studies, vol 26(1), pages 1-33.
|May 2012||Volatility, the Macroeconomy and Asset Prices|
with Ravi Bansal, Dana Kiku, Amir Yaron: w18104
We show that volatility movements have first-order implications for consumption dynamics and asset prices. Volatility news affects the stochastic discount factor and carries a separate risk premium. In the data, volatility risks are persistent and are strongly correlated with discount-rate news. This evidence has important implications for the return on aggregate wealth and the cross-sectional differences in risk premia. Estimation of our volatility risks based model yields an economically plausible positive correlation between the return to human capital and equity, while this correlation is implausibly negative when volatility risk is ignored. Our model setup implies a dynamics capital asset pricing model (DCAPM) which underscores the importance of volatility risk in addition to cash-flo...
Published: “Volatility, the Macroeconomy and Asset Prices” (Dana Kiku, Ivan Shaliastovich, and Amir Yaron) Journal of Finance, Volume 69, Issue 6, December 2014, Pages 2471–2511
|March 2009||Learning and Asset-Price Jumps|
with Ravi Bansal: w14814
We develop a general equilibrium model in which income and dividends are smooth, but asset prices are subject to large moves (jumps). A prominent feature of the model is that the optimal decision of investors to learn the unobserved state triggers large asset-price jumps. We show that the learning choice is critically determined by preference parameters and the conditional volatility of income process. An important prediction of the model is that income volatility predicts future jumps, while the variation in the level of income does not. We find that indeed in the data large moves in returns are predicted by consumption volatility, but not by the changes in the consumption level. We show that the model can quantitatively capture these novel features of the data.
Published: Rev. Financ. Stud. (2011) 24 (8): 2738-2780. doi: 10.1093/rfs/hhr023 First published online: April 2, 2011
|Confidence Risk and Asset Prices|
with Ravi Bansal: w14815
In the data, asset prices exhibit large negative moves at frequencies of about 18 months. These large moves are puzzling as they do not coincide, nor are they followed by any significant moves in the real side of the economy. On the other hand, we find that measures of investor's uncertainty about their estimate of future growth have significant information about large moves in returns. We set-up a recursive-utility based model in which investors learn about the latent expected growth using the cross-section of signals. The uncertainty (confidence measure) about investor's growth expectations, as in the data, is time-varying and subject to large moves. The fluctuations in confidence measure affect the distribution of future consumption given investors' information, and consequently influen...
Published: Ravi Bansal & Ivan Shaliastovich, 2010.
"Confidence Risk and Asset Prices,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 537-41, May.
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