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NBER Working Papers and Publications
|June 2017||Did the Affordable Care Act Young Adult Provision Affect Labor Market Outcomes? Analysis Using Tax Data|
with Bradley Heim, Kosali Simon: w23471
We study the impact of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) young adult dependent coverage requirement on labor market-related outcomes, including measures of employment status, job characteristics, and post-secondary education, using a data set of U.S. tax records spanning 2008-2013. We find that the ACA provision did not result in substantial changes in labor market outcomes. Our results show that employment and self-employment were not statistically significantly affected. While we find some evidence of increased likelihood of young adults earning lower wages, not receiving fringe benefits, enrolling as full-time or graduate students, and young men being self-employed, the magnitudes imply extremely small impacts on these outcomes in absolute terms and when compared to other estimates in the l...
|January 2017||The Impact of the Affordable Care Act Young Adult Provision on Childbearing, Marriage, and Tax Filing Behavior: Evidence from Tax Data|
with Bradley Heim, Kosali I. Simon: w23092
We use panel U.S. tax data spanning 2008-2013 to study the impact of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) young adult provision on two important demographic outcomes—childbearing and marriage. The impact on childbearing is theoretically ambiguous, as gaining insurance may increase access to contraceptive services, while also reducing the out-of-pocket costs of childbirth. The impact on marriage is also ambiguous, as marriage rates may decrease when young adults have less need for dependent health insurance through a spouse, but may increase when they are now allowed to stay on their parent’s plans even if they are married. Changes in childbearing and marriage can, in turn, lead to changes in the likelihood of filing a tax return. Since W-2 forms record access to employer-provided fringe benefi...
|January 2015||Medicaid as an Investment in Children: What is the Long-Term Impact on Tax Receipts?|
with David W. Brown, Amanda E. Kowalski: w20835
We examine the long-term impact of expansions to Medicaid and the State Children's Health Insurance Program that occurred in the 1980's and 1990's. With administrative data from the IRS, we calculate longitudinal health insurance eligibility from birth to age 18 for children in cohorts affected by these expansions, and we observe their longitudinal outcomes as adults. Using a simulated instrument that relies on variation in eligibility by cohort and state, we find that children whose eligibility increased paid more in cumulative taxes by age 28. These children collected less in EITC payments, and the women had higher cumulative wages by age 28. Incorporating additional data from the Medicaid Statistical Information System (MSIS), we find that the government spent $872 in 2011 dollars for ...
|October 2014||The Impact of the Affordable Care Act Young Adult Provision on Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from Tax Data|
with Bradley Heim, Kosali Simon
in Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 29, Jeffrey R. Brown, editor
We use a panel data set of U.S. tax records spanning 2008-2012 to study the impact of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) requirement to allow young adult dependents to be covered by their parents’ insurance policies on labor market-related outcomes. How health insurance expansions affect young adults through employment and education have important implications for public finance. Since tax data record access to employer provided fringe benefits on W-2 forms, we are able to examine the impact of this coverage expansion by comparing young adults whose parents have access to benefits to other similar aged young adults, before and after the law, and to young adults who are slightly older than the age threshold of the law. The use of tax data to identify families who have fringe benefits through the...