University of Tokyo School of Public Health
7-3-1, Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, 113-0033
NBER Working Papers and Publications
|January 2016||Forecasting Trends in Disability in a Super-Aging Society: Adapting the Future Elderly Model to Japan|
with Brian K. Chen, Hawre Jalal, Sze-Chuan Suen, Karen Eggleston, Michael Hurley, Lena Schoemaker, Jay Bhattacharya: w21870
Japan has experienced pronounced population aging, and now has the highest proportion of elderly adults in the world. Yet few projections of Japan’s future demography go beyond estimating population by age and sex to forecast the complex evolution of the health and functioning of the future elderly. This study adapts to the Japanese population the Future Elderly Model (FEM), a demographic and economic state-transition microsimulation model that projects the health conditions and functional status of Japan’s elderly population in order to estimate disability, health, and need for long term care. Our FEM simulation suggests that by 2040, over 27 percent of Japan’s elderly will exhibit 3 or more limitations in IADLs and social functioning; almost one in 4 will experience difficulties with 3 o...
Published: Brian K. Chen & Hawre Jalal & Hideki Hashimoto & Sze-chuan Suen & Karen Eggleston & Michael Hurley & Lena Schoemaker & Jay Bhattacharya, 2016. "Forecasting Trends in Disability in a Super-Aging Society: Adapting the Future Elderly Model to Japan," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, .