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NBER Working Papers and Publications
|December 2017||Accounting for the Rise in College Tuition|
with Aaron Hedlund
in Education, Skills, and Technical Change: Implications for Future US GDP Growth, Charles R. Hulten and Valerie A. Ramey, editors
We develop a quantitative model of higher education to test explanations for the steep rise in college tuition between 1987 and 2010. The framework extends the paradigm in Epple, Romano, Sarpca, and Sieg (2013) of imperfectly competitive, quality maximizing colleges and embeds it in an incomplete markets, life-cycle environment. We measure how much changes in the underlying cost structure, reforms to the Federal Student Loan Program (FSLP), and the increase in the college earnings premium have contributed to tuition inflation. In the model, these changes combine to generate a 102% rise in net tuition between 1987 and 2010, which more than accounts for the 92% increase seen in the data. Our findings suggest that expanded student loan borrowing limits are the largest driving force for the in...
|February 2016||Accounting for the Rise in College Tuition|
with Aaron Hedlund: w21967
We develop a quantitative model of higher education to test explanations for the steep rise in college tuition between 1987 and 2010. The framework extends the quality-maximizing college paradigm of Epple, Romano, Sarpca, and Sieg (2013) and embeds it in an incomplete markets, life-cycle environment. We measure how much changes in underlying costs, reforms to the Federal Student Loan Program (FSLP), and changes in the college earnings premium have caused tuition to increase. All these changes combined generate a 106% rise in net tuition between 1987 and 2010, which more than accounts for the 78% increase seen in the data. Changes in the FSLP alone generate a 102% tuition increase, and changes in the college premium generate a 24% increase. Our findings cast doubt on Baumol’s cost disease a...
|May 2012||Nonlinear Adventures at the Zero Lower Bound|
with Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, Pablo A. Guerrón-Quintana, Juan Rubio-Ramírez: w18058
Motivated by the recent experience of the U.S. and the Eurozone, we describe the quantitative properties of a New Keynesian model with a zero lower bound (ZLB) on nominal interest rates, explicitly accounting for the nonlinearities that the bound brings. Besides showing how such a model can be efficiently computed, we find that the behavior of the economy is substantially affected by the presence of the ZLB. In particular, we document 1) the unconditional and conditional probabilities of hitting the ZLB; 2) the unconditional and conditional probabilty distributions of the duration of a spell at the ZLB; 3) the responses of output to government expenditure shocks at the ZLB, 4) the distribution of shocks that send the economy to the ZLB; and 5) the distribution of shocks that keep the econo...
Published: Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Gordon, Grey & Guerrón-Quintana, Pablo & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan F., 2015. "Nonlinear adventures at the zero lower bound," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 182-204. citation courtesy of