NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Giorgio Fazio

Newcastle University Business School
Newcastle University
5 Barrack Road
Newcastle upon Tyne
NE1 4SE
United Kingdom

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NBER Working Papers and Publications

June 2014The Real Exchange Rate in the Long Run: Balassa-Samuelson Effects Reconsidered
with Michael D. Bordo, Ehsan U. Choudhri, Ronald MacDonald: w20228
Historical data for over hundred years and 14 countries is used to estimate the long-run effect of productivity on the real exchange rate. We find large variations in the productivity effect across four distinct monetary regimes in the sample period. Although the traditional Balassa-Samuelson model is not consistent with these results, we suggest an explanation of the results in terms of contemporary variants of the model that incorporate the terms of trade mechanism. Specifically we argue that changes in trade costs over time may affect the impact of productivity on the real exchange rate over time. We undertake simulations of the modern versions of the Balassa-Samuelson model to show that plausible parameter shifts consistent with the behavior of trade costs can explain the cross-regime ...

Published: Bordo, Michael D. & Choudhri, Ehsan U. & Fazio, Giorgio & MacDonald, Ronald, 2017. "The real exchange rate in the long run: Balassa-Samuelson effects reconsidered," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 69-92. citation courtesy of

 
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