NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Geoffrey H. Moore

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NBER Working Papers and Publications

November 1986Forecasting Recessions Under the Gramm-Rudman-Hollings Law
with Victor Zarnowitz: w2066

Published: Lahiri, Kajal and Geoffrey H. Moore (eds.) Leading economic indicators: New approaches and forecasting records. Cambridge; New York and Melbourne: Cambridge University Press, 1991.

1986Appendix A: The Development and Role of the National Bureau of Economic Research's Business Cycle Chronologies
with Victor Zarnowitz
in The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, Robert J. Gordon, editor
Major Changes in Cyclical Behavior
with Victor Zarnowitz
in The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, Robert J. Gordon, editor
July 1984The Development and Role of the National Bureau's Business Cycle Chronologies
with Victor Zarnowitz: w1394

Published: Moore, Geoffrey and Victor Zarnowitz. "The Development and Role of the National Bureau of Economic Research's Business Cycle Chronologies." The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, edited by Robert J. Gordon. Chicago: UCP, 1986, pp. 735-779.

Major Changes in Cyclical Behavior
with Victor Zarnowitz: w1395

Published:

1983Introductory pages to "Business Cycles, Inflation, and Forecasting, 2nd edition"
in Business Cycles, Inflation, and Forecasting, 2nd edition, Geoffrey H. Moore
What Is a Recession?
in Business Cycles, Inflation, and Forecasting, 2nd edition, Geoffrey H. Moore
Recession or Depression?
in Business Cycles, Inflation, and Forecasting, 2nd edition, Geoffrey H. Moore
Growth Cycles: A New-Old Concept
in Business Cycles, Inflation, and Forecasting, 2nd edition, Geoffrey H. Moore
An Introduction to International Economic Indicators
in Business Cycles, Inflation, and Forecasting, 2nd edition, Geoffrey H. Moore
Presenting Employment and Unemployment Statistics in a Business Cycle Context
in Business Cycles, Inflation, and Forecasting, 2nd edition, Geoffrey H. Moore
The Federal Deficit as a Business Cycle Stabilizer
in Business Cycles, Inflation, and Forecasting, 2nd edition, Geoffrey H. Moore
Security Markets and Business Cycles
in Business Cycles, Inflation, and Forecasting, 2nd edition, Geoffrey H. Moore
Some Secular Changes in Business Cycles
in Business Cycles, Inflation, and Forecasting, 2nd edition, Geoffrey H. Moore
Five Little-known Facts about Inflation
in Business Cycles, Inflation, and Forecasting, 2nd edition, Geoffrey H. Moore
The Cyclical Behavior of Prices
in Business Cycles, Inflation, and Forecasting, 2nd edition, Geoffrey H. Moore
Employment, Unemployment, and the Inflation–Recession Dilemma
in Business Cycles, Inflation, and Forecasting, 2nd edition, Geoffrey H. Moore
Recession Slows Inflation
in Business Cycles, Inflation, and Forecasting, 2nd edition, Geoffrey H. Moore
Cyclical Fluctuations and Secular Inflation
in Business Cycles, Inflation, and Forecasting, 2nd edition, Geoffrey H. Moore
Trends and Cycles in Productivity, Unit Costs, and Prices: An International Perspective
with John P. Cullity
in Business Cycles, Inflation, and Forecasting, 2nd edition, Geoffrey H. Moore
Inflation and Profits
in Business Cycles, Inflation, and Forecasting, 2nd edition, Geoffrey H. Moore
Inflation and Statistics
in Business Cycles, Inflation, and Forecasting, 2nd edition, Geoffrey H. Moore
Inflation and Statistics—Again
in Business Cycles, Inflation, and Forecasting, 2nd edition, Geoffrey H. Moore
Why the Leading Indicators Really Do Lead
in Business Cycles, Inflation, and Forecasting, 2nd edition, Geoffrey H. Moore
A New Leading Index of Employment and Unemployment
in Business Cycles, Inflation, and Forecasting, 2nd edition, Geoffrey H. Moore
When Lagging Indicators Lead: The History of an Idea
in Business Cycles, Inflation, and Forecasting, 2nd edition, Geoffrey H. Moore
The Forty-second Anniversary of the Leading Indicators
in Business Cycles, Inflation, and Forecasting, 2nd edition, Geoffrey H. Moore
Forecasting Short-Term Economic Change
in Business Cycles, Inflation, and Forecasting, 2nd edition, Geoffrey H. Moore
The President's Economic Report: A Forecasting Record
in Business Cycles, Inflation, and Forecasting, 2nd edition, Geoffrey H. Moore
Appendices to "Business Cycles, Inflation, and Forecasting, 2nd edition"
in Business Cycles, Inflation, and Forecasting, 2nd edition, Geoffrey H. Moore
How to Fix the CPI
with Phillip Cagan
in Business Cycles, Inflation, and Forecasting, 2nd edition, Geoffrey H. Moore
The Timing and Severity of the 1980 Recession
with Victor Zarnowitz
in Business Cycles, Inflation, and Forecasting, 2nd edition, Geoffrey H. Moore
Sequential Signals of Recession and Recovery
with Victor Zarnowitz
in Business Cycles, Inflation, and Forecasting, 2nd edition, Geoffrey H. Moore
July 1982The Leading Indicator Approach to Economic Forecasting--Retrospect and Prospect
with Philip A. Klein: w0941

Published: Klein, P. A. and G. H. Moore. "The Leading Indicator Approach To Economic Forecasting - Retrospect And Prospect," Journal of Forecasting, 1983, v2(2), 119-136.

October 1977The Recession and Recovery of 1973-1976
with Victor Zarnowitz
in Explorations in Economic Research, Volume 4, number 4, Victor Zarnowitz and Geoffrey H. Moore
1975Slowdowns, Recessions, and Inflation: Some Issues and Answers
in Explorations in Economic Research, Volume 2, number 2, NBER
Productivity, Costs, and Prices: New Light from an Old Hypothesis
in Explorations in Economic Research, Volume 2, number 1, NBER
1972An Econometric Model of Business Cycles
with Gregory C. Chow, An-loh Lin
in Econometric Models of Cyclical Behavior, Volumes 1 and 2, Bert G. Hickman, editor
The Cyclical Behavior of Prices
in Economic Research: Retrospect and Prospect, Volume 1, The Business Cycle Today, Victor Zarnowitz, editor
Business Cycle Analysis of Econometric Model Simulations
with Victor Zarnowitz, Charlotte Boschan, Josephine Su
in Econometric Models of Cyclical Behavior, Volumes 1 and 2, Bert G. Hickman, editor
1969Foreword to "Dating Postwar Business Cycles: Methods and Their Application to Western Germany, 1950–67"
in Dating Postwar Business Cycles: Methods and Their Application to Western Germany, 1950–67, Ilse Mintz
1968Composite Indexes of Leading, Coinciding, and Lagging Indicators, 1948–67
with Julius Shiskin
in Supplement to NBER Report One, Julius Shiskin and Geoffrey H. Moore
1967Contributions To Economic Knowledge Through Research
in Contributions to Economic Knowledge Through Research, NBER
Front matter, The Quality of Consumer Instalment Credit
with Philip A Klein
in The Quality of Consumer Instalment Credit, Geoffrey H. Moore and Philip A. Klein
Instalment Credit in Perspective
with Philip A Klein
in The Quality of Consumer Instalment Credit, Geoffrey H. Moore and Philip A. Klein
The Concept of Credit Quality
with Philip A Klein
in The Quality of Consumer Instalment Credit, Geoffrey H. Moore and Philip A. Klein
Credit Terms and Subsequent Collection Experience
with Philip A Klein
in The Quality of Consumer Instalment Credit, Geoffrey H. Moore and Philip A. Klein
Borrower Characteristics and Subsequent Collection Experience
with Philip A Klein
in The Quality of Consumer Instalment Credit, Geoffrey H. Moore and Philip A. Klein
The Relations Among Credit Terms, Borrower Characteristics, and Collection Experience
with Philip A Klein
in The Quality of Consumer Instalment Credit, Geoffrey H. Moore and Philip A. Klein
Credit Experience and the Business Cycle
with Philip A Klein
in The Quality of Consumer Instalment Credit, Geoffrey H. Moore and Philip A. Klein
The Influence of Credit Quality and the Business Cycle on Credit Experience
with Philip A Klein
in The Quality of Consumer Instalment Credit, Geoffrey H. Moore and Philip A. Klein
Findings of the Study: A Conspectus and a Program
with Philip A Klein
in The Quality of Consumer Instalment Credit, Geoffrey H. Moore and Philip A. Klein
Appendix A: Supplementary Tables on Financing Terms and Borrower Characteristics, 1925–66
with Philip A Klein
in The Quality of Consumer Instalment Credit, Geoffrey H. Moore and Philip A. Klein
Appendix B: Cross-Classification of New-Auto Contracts by Credit Terms and Borrower Characteristics, and Chi-Square Tests of Relationship
with Philip A Klein
in The Quality of Consumer Instalment Credit, Geoffrey H. Moore and Philip A. Klein
Appendix C: Four Measures of Collection Experience: Their Characteristics and Uses
with Philip A Klein
in The Quality of Consumer Instalment Credit, Geoffrey H. Moore and Philip A. Klein
Appendix D: Repossession and Delinquency Rates on New-Car Loans Classified by Credit Terms and Borrower Characteristics, 1954–55
with Philip A Klein
in The Quality of Consumer Instalment Credit, Geoffrey H. Moore and Philip A. Klein
Appendix E: Income, Employment, and Delinquency Rates by Region, 1948–65
with Philip A Klein
in The Quality of Consumer Instalment Credit, Geoffrey H. Moore and Philip A. Klein
Appendix F: Quarterly Data on Automobile Contract Terms and Collection Experience for Twelve Metropolitan Areas, 1953–56
with Philip A Klein
in The Quality of Consumer Instalment Credit, Geoffrey H. Moore and Philip A. Klein
Appendix G: Some Evidence on the Effect of Credit Terms on Credit Volume
with Philip A Klein
in The Quality of Consumer Instalment Credit, Geoffrey H. Moore and Philip A. Klein
Appendix H: Estimation of Delinquency and Repossession Risk from Maturity and Down Payment Information on New-Auto Contracts
with Philip A Klein
in The Quality of Consumer Instalment Credit, Geoffrey H. Moore and Philip A. Klein
Front matter, Indicators of Business Expansions and Contractions
with Julius Shiskin
in Indicators of Business Expansions and Contractions, Geoffrey H. Moore and Julius Shiskin
Introduction and Summary
with Julius Shiskin
in Indicators of Business Expansions and Contractions, Geoffrey H. Moore and Julius Shiskin
An Explicit Scoring System for Business Cycle Indicators
with Julius Shiskin
in Indicators of Business Expansions and Contractions, Geoffrey H. Moore and Julius Shiskin
Problems of Classification and Presentation
with Julius Shiskin
in Indicators of Business Expansions and Contractions, Geoffrey H. Moore and Julius Shiskin
The 1966 List of Indicators
with Julius Shiskin
in Indicators of Business Expansions and Contractions, Geoffrey H. Moore and Julius Shiskin
Appendix A: Instructions for Assigning Scores to Indicators
with Julius Shiskin
in Indicators of Business Expansions and Contractions, Geoffrey H. Moore and Julius Shiskin
Appendix B: Eighty-eight Selected Indicators Classified by Timing and Economic Process: Timing Characteristics for Peaks and Troughs Separately
with Julius Shiskin
in Indicators of Business Expansions and Contractions, Geoffrey H. Moore and Julius Shiskin
Appendix C: Thirty-four Other Series Classified by Economic Process: Timing Characteristics for Peaks and Troughs Separately
with Julius Shiskin
in Indicators of Business Expansions and Contractions, Geoffrey H. Moore and Julius Shiskin
Appendix D: Conformity and Timing Scores for 1948–65
with Julius Shiskin
in Indicators of Business Expansions and Contractions, Geoffrey H. Moore and Julius Shiskin
Appendix E: Median Lead (or Lag) of Seventy-two Selected Indicators Adjusted for Loss of Currency When Smoothed by MCD Moving Averages
with Julius Shiskin
in Indicators of Business Expansions and Contractions, Geoffrey H. Moore and Julius Shiskin
Appendix F: Monthly Chronology of Business Cycles in the United States, 1854–1961
with Julius Shiskin
in Indicators of Business Expansions and Contractions, Geoffrey H. Moore and Julius Shiskin
Appendix G: Titles and Sources of Series Reviewed in This Report
with Julius Shiskin
in Indicators of Business Expansions and Contractions, Geoffrey H. Moore and Julius Shiskin
Index
with Julius Shiskin
in Indicators of Business Expansions and Contractions, Geoffrey H. Moore and Julius Shiskin
1966Anticipating the Nation
in Anticipating the Nation's Needs For Economic Knowledge, NBER
1964Reports on Selected Bureau Programs
with Milton Friedman, Joseph W. Conard, Hal B. Lary
in The National Bureau Enters Its Forty-fifth Year, NBER
1963Reports on Selected Bureau Programs
with James S. Earley, Hal B. Lary, Roger F. Murray
in The Uses of Economic Research, 43rd Annual Report, A Record for 1962 and Plans for 1963, NBER
1962Tested Knowledge of Business Cycles
in Tested Knowledge of Business Cycles, NBER
Activities During 1961
with Hal B. Lary
in Tested Knowledge of Business Cycles, NBER
1961Leading and Confirming Indicators of General Business Changes
in Business Cycle Indicators, Volume 1, Geoffrey H. Moore, ed.
Measuring Recessions
in Business Cycle Indicators, Volume 1, Geoffrey H. Moore, ed.
Statistical Indicators of Cyclical Revivals and Recessions
in Business Cycle Indicators, Volume 1, Geoffrey H. Moore, ed.
The Diffusion of Business Cycles
in Business Cycle Indicators, Volume 1, Geoffrey H. Moore, ed.
Diffusion Indexes, Rates of Change, and Forecasting
in Business Cycle Indicators, Volume 1, Geoffrey H. Moore, ed.
Business Cycles and the Labor Market
in Business Cycle Indicators, Volume 1, Geoffrey H. Moore, ed.
An Amplitude Adjustment for the Leading Indicators
in Business Cycle Indicators, Volume 1, Geoffrey H. Moore, ed.
A Technique for Summarizing the Current Behavior of Groups of Indicators
in Business Cycle Indicators, Volume 1, Geoffrey H. Moore, ed.
Appendices to "Business Cycle Indicators, Volume 1"
in Business Cycle Indicators, Volume 1, Geoffrey H. Moore, ed.
Introductory pages to "Business Cycle Indicators, Volume 1"
in Business Cycle Indicators, Volume 1, Geoffrey H. Moore, ed.
Introduction to "Business Cycle Indicators, Volume 1"
in Business Cycle Indicators, Volume 1, Geoffrey H. Moore, ed.
Activities During 1960
in Towards A Firmer Basis Of Economic Policy, Solomon Fabricant
Introductory pages to "Business Cycle Indicators, Volume 2, Basic Data on Cyclical Indicators"
in Business Cycle Indicators, Volume 2, Basic Data on Cyclical Indicators, Geoffrey H. Moore, ed.
Sources and Descriptions: Cyclical Indicators
in Business Cycle Indicators, Volume 2, Basic Data on Cyclical Indicators, Geoffrey H. Moore, ed.
Sources and Descriptions: Diffusion Indexes
in Business Cycle Indicators, Volume 2, Basic Data on Cyclical Indicators, Geoffrey H. Moore, ed.
Original and Seasonally Adjusted Data, and Seasonal Indexes: Cyclical Indicators
in Business Cycle Indicators, Volume 2, Basic Data on Cyclical Indicators, Geoffrey H. Moore, ed.
Original and Seasonally Adjusted Data, and Seasonal Indexes: Diffusion Indexes
in Business Cycle Indicators, Volume 2, Basic Data on Cyclical Indicators, Geoffrey H. Moore, ed.
1958Front matter to "Measuring Recessions"
in Measuring Recessions, Geoffrey H. Moore
Introduction and Summary
in Measuring Recessions, Geoffrey H. Moore
Changes in Aggregate Economic Activity during the First Year of Recession
in Measuring Recessions, Geoffrey H. Moore
Changes in "Leading Indicators" during the First Year of Recession
in Measuring Recessions, Geoffrey H. Moore
Changes in the Scope of Business Cycle Contractions
in Measuring Recessions, Geoffrey H. Moore
Other Applications
in Measuring Recessions, Geoffrey H. Moore
Appendix A: Actual IBM 704 Print-out Showing Standings and Percentage Changes after Business Cycle Peaks, Twenty Economic Indicators
in Measuring Recessions, Geoffrey H. Moore
Appendix B: Sources of Current Data and Seasonal Adjustment Factors
in Measuring Recessions, Geoffrey H. Moore
1956Staff Reports: Business Cycles
with Ruth P. Mack, Millard Hastay, Thor Hultgren, Gerhard Bry, T. M. Stanback, Jr., Milton Friedman, George H. Borts
in Basic Research and the Analysis of Current Business Conditions, Thirty-sixth Annual Report, Solomon Fabricant
1950Front matter to Statistical Indicators of Cyclical Revivals and Recessions
in Statistical Indicators of Cyclical Revivals and Recessions, Geoffrey H. Moore
Aim of the Study and Summary of Findings
in Statistical Indicators of Cyclical Revivals and Recessions, Geoffrey H. Moore
An Experiment with Indicators
in Statistical Indicators of Cyclical Revivals and Recessions, Geoffrey H. Moore
Varieties of Cyclical Behavior and their Consensus
in Statistical Indicators of Cyclical Revivals and Recessions, Geoffrey H. Moore
Criteria for Selecting Indicators
in Statistical Indicators of Cyclical Revivals and Recessions, Geoffrey H. Moore
Classification of Series According to Conformity and Timing
in Statistical Indicators of Cyclical Revivals and Recessions, Geoffrey H. Moore
Behavior of Selected Groups of Indicators, 1885-1940
in Statistical Indicators of Cyclical Revivals and Recessions, Geoffrey H. Moore
A Tentative List of Current Indicators
in Statistical Indicators of Cyclical Revivals and Recessions, Geoffrey H. Moore
Appendix A: A Technique for Summarizing the Current Behavior of Groups of Indicators
in Statistical Indicators of Cyclical Revivals and Recessions, Geoffrey H. Moore
Appendix B: List of Series with Acceptable Conformity and Timing, in Three Timing Groups
in Statistical Indicators of Cyclical Revivals and Recessions, Geoffrey H. Moore
March 1944Front matter to "Production of Industrial Materials in World Wars I and II"
in Production of Industrial Materials in World Wars I and II, Geoffrey H. Moore
Summary
in Production of Industrial Materials in World Wars I and II, Geoffrey H. Moore
The Rise in Total Output of Industrial Materials
in Production of Industrial Materials in World Wars I and II, Geoffrey H. Moore
Changes in Output of Individual Industries
in Production of Industrial Materials in World Wars I and II, Geoffrey H. Moore
The Decline in the Rate of Growth of Industrial Materials Output
in Production of Industrial Materials in World Wars I and II, Geoffrey H. Moore
Industrial Materials Output and Total Industrial Production in Peace and War
in Production of Industrial Materials in World Wars I and II, Geoffrey H. Moore
Appendix A, Coverage and Weighting of Industrial Materials Production Index
in Production of Industrial Materials in World Wars I and II, Geoffrey H. Moore
September 1941A Significance Test for Time Series and Other Ordered Observations
with W. Allen Wallis
in A Significance Test for Time Series and Other Ordered Observations, W. Allen Wallis and Geoffrey H. Moore
 
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