NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
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Ernest Liu

Princeton University
Department of Economics
Julis Romo Rabinowitz Building
Princeton, NJ 08544

E-Mail: EmailAddress: hidden: you can email any NBER-related person as first underscore last at nber dot org
Institutional Affiliation: Princeton University

NBER Working Papers and Publications

July 2020International Friends and Enemies
with Benny Kleinman, Stephen J. Redding: w27587
We develop sufficient statistics of countries' bilateral income and welfare exposure to foreign productivity shocks that are exact for small shocks in the class of models with a constant trade elasticity. For large shocks, we characterize the quality of the approximation, and show it to be almost exact. We compute these sufficient statistics for over 140 countries from 1970-2012. We show that our exposure measures depend on market-size, cross-substitution and cost of living effects. As countries become greater economic friends in terms of welfare exposure, they become greater political friends in terms of United Nations voting and strategic rivalries.
January 2019Low Interest Rates, Market Power, and Productivity Growth
with Atif Mian, Amir Sufi: w25505
This study provides a new theoretical result that low interest rates encourage market concentration by raising industry leaders’ incentive to gain a strategic advantage over followers, and this effect strengthens as the interest rate approaches zero. The model provides a unified explanation for why the fall in long-term interest rates has been associated with rising market concentration, reduced business dynamism, a widening productivity-gap between industry leaders and followers, and slower productivity growth. Support for the model’s key mechanism is established by showing that a decline in the ten year Treasury yield generates positive excess returns for industry leaders, and the magnitude of the excess returns rises as the Treasury yield approaches zero.
 
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