NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
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Elyas Fermand

University of North Carolina
Kenan-Flagler Business School
300 Kenan Center Drive, Finance Area
McColl 4100
Chapel Hill, NC 27599

E-Mail: EmailAddress: hidden: you can email any NBER-related person as first underscore last at nber dot org
Institutional Affiliation: University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill

NBER Working Papers and Publications

December 2018Expectations Uncertainty and Household Economic Behavior
with Itzhak Ben-David, Camelia M. Kuhnen, Geng Li: w25336
We show that there exists significant heterogeneity across US households in how uncertain they are in their expectations regarding personal and macroeconomic outcomes, and that uncertainty in expectations predicts households' choices. Individuals with lower income or education, more precarious finances, and living in counties with higher unemployment are more uncertain in their expectations regarding own-income growth, inflation, and national home price changes. People with more uncertain expectations, even accounting for their socioeconomic characteristics, exhibit more precaution in their consumption, credit, and investment behaviors.
 
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