NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Eduardo Fernandez-Arias

Inter-American Development Bank
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NBER Working Papers and Publications

July 1994Recent Private Capital Inflows to Developing Countries: Is the Debt Crisis History?
with Michael P. Dooley, Kenneth M. Kletzer: w4792
This empirical study finds that while debt reduction and policy reforms in debtor countries have been important determinants of renewed access to international capital markets, changes in international interest rates have been the dominant factor. We calculate the effects of changes in international interest rates for a 'typical' debtor country. We conclude that increases in interest rates associated with business cycle upturn in industrial countries could depress the secondary market prices of existing debt to levels inconsistent with continued capital inflows.

Published: Dooley, Michael & Fernandez-Arias, Eduardo & Kletzer, Kenneth, 1996. "Is the Debt Crisis History? Recent Private Capital Inflows to Developing Countries," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(1), pages 27-50, January.

 
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