NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

David Winter

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NBER Working Papers and Publications

August 1983Macroeconomic Planning and Disequilibrium: Estimates for Poland, 1955-1980
with Richard Portes, Richard E. Quandt, Stephen Yeo: w1182
This paper specifies and estimates a four-equation disequilibrium model of the consumption goods market in a centrally planned economy(CPE).The data are from Poland for the period 1955-1980, but the analysis is more general and will be applied to other CPEs as soon as the appropriate data sets are complete.This work is based on previous papers of Portes and Winter (P-W) and Charemza and Quandt(C-Q).P-W applied to each of four CPEs a discrete-switching disequilibrium model with a household demand equation for consumption goods, a planners' supply equation, and a "min" condition stating that the observed quantity transacted is the lesser of the quantities demanded and supplied.C-Q considered how an equation for the adjustment of planned quantities could be integrated into a CPE model with fi...

Published: Portes, Richard, Richard Quandt, David Winter and Stephen Yeo. "Macroeconomic Planning and Disequilibrium: Estimates for Poland, 1955-1980," Econometrica, Vol. 55, No. 1, (January 1987), pp. 19-41. citation courtesy of

February 1983Planning the Consumption Goods Market: Preliminary Disequilibrium Estimates for Poland, 1955-1980
with Richard Portes, Richard E. Quandt, Stephen Yeo: w1076
This paper specifies and estimates a four-equation disequilibrium model of the consumption goods market in a centrally planned economy (CPE).The data are from Poland for the period 1955-1980, but the analysis is more general and will be applied to other CPEs as soon as the appropriate data sets are complete.The work reported here is based on previous papers of Portes and Winter and Charernza and Quandt.Portes-Winter applied to eachof four CPEs a discrete-switching disequilibrium model with a household demand equation for consumption goods, a planners'supply equation, and a "min" condition stating that the observed quantity transacted is the lesser of the quantities demanded and supplied.Charemza-Quandt considered how an equation for the adjustment of planned quantitites could be integrated...

Published: in "Contemporary Macroeconomic Modeling," edited by P. Malgrange and P.A. Muet, pp. 254-271. Oxford: Blackwell Publishers, (1984).

August 1981Macroeconomic Adjustment and Foreign Trade of Centrally Planned Economies
with John Burkett, Richard Portes: w0736
This empirical study stresses the underlying macroeconomic forces which determine foreign trade flows in CPEs. The general specification includes a planners' demand equation for the volume of imports, a planners' supply equation for the volume of exports, and a rest-of-world demand equation for the export price level. The planners' behavioural equations include variables for activity levels, trade balance constraints, prices, and domestic excess demand. The import price is exogenous. This simultaneous equation model is estimated on annual data from the mid-1950s to the mid-1970s, for Czechoslovakia, the GDR, Hungary, and Poland. Maximum likelihood estimation in a nested hypothesis testing framework allows selection of restricted versions of the general model for each country. Estimated pri...
 
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