Carlo F. Dondena Centre for Research on
Social Dynamics and Public Policy (Dondena)
NBER Working Papers and Publications
|December 2017||Austerity and the rise of the Nazi party|
with Gregori Galofré-Vilà, Christopher M. Meissner, Martin McKee: w24106
The current historical consensus on the economic causes of the inexorable Nazi electoral success between 1930 and 1933 suggests this was largely related to the Treaty of Versailles and the Great Depression. Alternatively, it has been speculated that contractionary fiscal austerity measures contributed to votes for the Nazi party. Voting data from 1,024 districts and 98 cities shows that Chancellor Brüning’s austerity measures (spending cuts and tax increases) were positively associated with increasing vote shares for the Nazi party. We also find that the suffering due to austerity (measured by mortality rates) radicalized the German electorate. Our findings are robust to a range of specifications including an instrumental variable strategy and a border-pair policy discontinuity design.
|August 2016||The Economic Consequences of the 1953 London Debt Agreement|
with Gregori Galofré-Vilà, Martin McKee, Christopher M. Meissner: w22557
In 1953 the Western Allied powers implemented a radical debt-relief plan that would, in due course, eliminate half of West Germany’s external debt and create a series of favourable debt repayment conditions. The London Debt Agreement (LDA) correlated with West Germany experiencing the highest rate of economic growth recorded in Europe in the 1950s and 1960s. In this paper we examine the economic consequences of this historical episode. We use new data compiled from the monthly reports of the Deutsche Bundesbank from 1948 to the 1960s. These reports not only provide detailed statistics of the German finances, but also a narrative on the evolution of the German economy on a monthly basis. These sources also contain special issues on the LDA, highlighting contemporaries’ interest in the state...
|November 2009||Foreign Currency Debt, Financial Crises and Economic Growth: A Long Run View|
with Michael D. Bordo, Christopher M. Meissner: w15534
Foreign currency debt is widely believed to increase risks of financial crisis, especially after being implicated as a cause of the East Asian crisis in the late 1990s. In this paper, we study the effects of foreign currency debt on currency and debt crises and its indirect short and long run effects on output between 1880-1913 and 1973-2003 for 45 countries. Greater ratios of foreign currency debt to total debt are associated with increased risks of currency and debt crises, although the strength of the association depends crucially on the size of a country's reserve base and its policy credibility. We find that financial crises, driven by exposure to foreign currency, resulted in significant permanent output losses. We evaluate our findings by looking at the risk posed by high levels of ...
Published: Bordo, Michael D. & Meissner, Christopher M. & Stuckler, David, 2010.
"Foreign currency debt, financial crises and economic growth: A long-run view,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 642-665, June.
citation courtesy of