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NBER Working Papers and Publications
|January 2014||Exporter Dynamics, Firm Size and Growth, and Partial Year Effects|
with Andrew B. Bernard, Renzo Massari, Jose-Daniel Reyes: w19865
Two otherwise identical firms that enter the same market in different months, one in January and one in December, will report dramatically different annual sales for the first calendar year of operations. This partial year effect in annual data leads to downward biased observations of the level of activity upon entry and upward biased growth rates between the year of entry and the following year. This paper examines the implications of partial year effects using Peruvian export data. The partial year bias is very large: the average level of first-year exports of new exporters is understated by 65 percent and the average growth rate between the first and second year of exporting is overstated by 112 percentage points. This paper re-examines a number of stylized facts about firm size and gro...
|January 2011||Gravity Chains: Estimating Bilateral Trade Flows When Parts And Components Trade Is Important|
with Richard Baldwin: w16672
Trade is measured on a gross sales basis while GDP is measured on a net sales basis, i.e. value added. The rapid internationalisation of production in the last two decades has meant that gross trade flows are increasingly unrepresentative of the value added flows. This fact has important implications for the estimation of the gravity equation. We present empirical evidence that the standard gravity equation performs poorly by some measures when it is applied to bilateral flows where parts and components trade is important. We also provide a simple theoretical foundation for a modified gravity equation that is suited to explaining trade where international supply chains are important.
Published: Daria Taglioni & Richard Baldwin, 2014. "Gravity chains: Estimating bilateral trade flows when parts and components trade is important," Journal of Banking and Financial Economics, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 2(2), pages 61-82, November. citation courtesy of
|September 2006||Gravity for Dummies and Dummies for Gravity Equations|
with Richard Baldwin: w12516
This paper provides a minimalist derivation of the gravity equation and uses it to identify three common errors in the literature, what we call the gold, silver and bronze medal errors. The paper provides estimates of the size of the biases taking the currency union trade effect as an example. We generalize Anderson-Van Wincoop's multilateral trade resistance factor (which only works with cross section data) to allow for panel data and then show that it can be dealt with using time-varying country dummies with omitted determinants of bilateral trade being dealt with by time-invariant pair dummies.
Published: "Trade effects of the euro: A comparison of estimators”, with Daria Taglioni, Journal of Economic Integration, 22(4), December, pp 780–818. 2007. Circulated as “Gravity for dummies and dummies for gravity equations” CEPR DP5850, and NBER WP 12516. 2007.