NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
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Daniel Murphy

Darden School of Business
University of Virginia
Charlottesville, VA 22906

E-Mail: EmailAddress: hidden: you can email any NBER-related person as first underscore last at nber dot org
Institutional Affiliation: University of Virginia

NBER Working Papers and Publications

October 2019Macroeconomic Frameworks
with Alan J. Auerbach, Yuriy Gorodnichenko: w26365
We link detailed data on defense spending, wages, hours, employment, establishments, and GDP across U.S. cities to study the effects of fiscal stimulus. Our small-open-economy empirical setting permits us to estimate key macroeconomic outcomes and elasticities, including the responses of the labor share and the labor wedge to demand shocks and the elasticity of output with respect to labor inputs. We also decompose changes in work hours into different margins (hours per worker, the employment rate, and the labor force) and examine effects on local rental prices, wages, and firm entry. We compare our findings with the predictions of macroeconomic models and propose modifications to existing theory that can accommodate our findings.
January 2019Local Fiscal Multipliers and Fiscal Spillovers in the United States
with Alan J. Auerbach, Yuriy Gorodnichenko: w25457
We estimate local fiscal multipliers and spillovers for the United States using a rich dataset based on U.S. Department of Defense contracts and a variety of outcome variables relating to income and employment. We find strong positive spillovers across locations and industries. Both backward linkages and general equilibrium effects (e.g., income multipliers) contribute to the positive spillovers. Geographical spillovers appear to dissipate fairly quickly with distance. Our evidence points to the relevance of Keynesian-type models that feature excess capacity.
 
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