NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Cyrus Samii

Department of Political Science
New York University
19 West 4th Street, 2nd Floor
New York, NY 10012

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NBER Working Papers and Publications

August 2017The Effect of Fertility on Mothers’ Labor Supply over the Last Two Centuries
with Daniel Aaronson, Rajeev Dehejia, Andrew Jordan, Cristian Pop-Eleches, Karl Schulze: w23717
This paper documents the evolving impact of childbearing on the work activity of mothers. Based on a compiled dataset of 441 censuses and surveys between 1787 and 2015, representing 103 countries and 48.4 million mothers, we document three main findings: (1) the effect of fertility on labor supply is small and typically indistinguishable from zero at low levels of development and economically large and negative at higher levels of development; (2) this negative gradient is remarkably consistent across histories of currently developed countries and contemporary cross-sections of countries; and (3) the results are strikingly robust to identification strategies, model specification, data construction, and rescaling. We explain our results within a standard labor-leisure model and attribute th...
October 2015Local Instruments, Global Extrapolation: External Validity of the Labor Supply-Fertility Local Average Treatment Effect
with James Bisbee, Rajeev Dehejia, Cristian Pop-Eleches: w21663
We investigate whether local average treatment effects (LATE’s) can be extrapolated to new settings. We extend the analysis and framework of Dehejia, Pop-Eleches, and Samii (2015), which examines the external validity of the Angrist-Evans (1998) reduced-form natural experiment of having two first children of the same sex on the probability of an incremental child and on mother’s labor supply. We estimate Angrist and Evans's (1998) same-sex instrumental variable strategy in 139 country-year censuses using data from the Integrated Public Use Micro Sample International. We compare each country-year's LATE, as a hypothetical target, to the LATE extrapolated from other country-years (using the approach suggested by Angrist and Fernandez-Val 2010). Paralleling our findings in Dehejia, Pop-Eleche...

Published: James Bisbee & Rajeev Dehejia & Cristian Pop-Eleches & Cyrus Samii, 2017. "Local Instruments, Global Extrapolation: External Validity of the Labor Supply-Fertility Local Average Treatment Effect," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 35(S1), pages 99-147. citation courtesy of

August 2015From Local to Global: External Validity in a Fertility Natural Experiment
with Rajeev Dehejia, Cristian Pop-Eleches: w21459
We study issues related to external validity for treatment effects using 166 replications of the Angrist and Evans (1998) natural experiment on the effects of sibling sex composition on fertility and labor supply. The replications are based on census data from around the world going back to 1960. We decompose sources of error in predicting treatment effects in external contexts in terms of macro and micro sources of variation. In our empirical setting, we find that macro covariates dominate over micro covariates for reducing errors in predicting treatments, an issue that past studies of external validity have been unable to evaluate. We develop methods for two applications to evidencebased decision-making, including determining where to run the next experiment and whether policy-makers sho...
 
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