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NBER Working Papers and Publications
|March 2016||The Macroeconomic Impact of Financial and Uncertainty Shocks|
with Dario Caldara, Simon Gilchrist, Egon Zakrajšek: w22058
The extraordinary events surrounding the Great Recession have cast a considerable doubt on the traditional sources of macroeconomic instability. In their place, economists have singled out financial and uncertainty shocks as potentially important drivers of economic fluctuations. Empirically distinguishing between these two types of shocks, however, is difficult because increases in economic uncertainty are strongly associated with a widening of credit spreads, an indication of a tightening in financial conditions. This paper uses the penalty function approach within the SVAR framework to examine the interaction between financial conditions and economic uncertainty and to trace out the impact of these two types of shocks on the economy. The results indicate that (1) financial shocks have a...
Published: Dario Caldara & Cristina Fuentes-Albero & Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajšek, 2016. "The macroeconomic impact of financial and uncertainty shocks," European Economic Review, vol (). citation courtesy of
|September 2009||Methods versus Substance: Measuring the Effects of Technology Shocks on Hours|
with José-Víctor Ríos-Rull, Frank Schorfheide, Maxym Kryshko, Raül Santaeulàlia-Llopis: w15375
In this paper, we employ both calibration and modern (Bayesian) estimation methods to assess the role of neutral and investment-specific technology shocks in generating fluctuations in hours. Using a neoclassical stochastic growth model, we show how answers are shaped by the identification strategies and not by the statistical approaches. The crucial parameter is the labor supply elasticity. Both a calibration procedure that uses modern assessments of the Frisch elasticity and the estimation procedures result in technology shocks accounting for 2% to 9% of the variation in hours worked in the data. We infer that we should be talking more about identification and less about the choice of particular quantitative approaches.
Published: \Methods versus Substance: Measuring the Eects of Technology Shocks on Hours" joint with Frank Schorfheide, Cristina Fuentes-Albero, Raul Santaeulalia-Llopis and Maxym Kryshko. Journal of Monetary Economics Vol. 59, Issue 8, December 2012, pp. 826-46.