CREST, École Polytechnique
5 Avenue Le Chatelier
Institutional Affiliation: CREST, Ecole Polytechnique
Information about this author at RePEc
NBER Working Papers and Publications
|December 2019||Coordination and Bandwagon Effects of Candidate Rankings: Evidence from Runoff Elections|
with Vincent Pons: w26599
To predict others’ behavior and make their own choices, voters and candidates can rely on information provided by polls and past election results. We isolate the impact of candidates’ rankings using an RDD in French local and parliamentary two-round elections, where up to 3 or 4 candidates can qualify for the second round. Candidates who barely ranked first in the first round are more likely to run in the second round (5.6pp), win (5.8pp), and win conditionally on running (2.9 to 5.9pp), than those who barely ranked second. The effects are even larger for ranking second instead of third (23.5, 9.9, and 6.9 to 12.2pp), and also present for ranking third instead of fourth (14.6, 2.2, and 3.0 to 5.0pp). The impact of rankings is largest when the candidates have the same political orientation ...