Information about this author at RePEc
NBER Working Papers and Publications
|July 2008||Inflation Implications of Rising Government Debt|
with Andrew Scott
in NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2006, Lucrezia Reichlin and Kenneth West, organizers
|October 2006||Inflation Implications of Rising Government Debt|
with Andrew Scott: w12654
The intertemporal budget constraint of the government implies a relationship between a ratio of current liabilities to the primary deficit with future values of inflation, interest rates, GDP and narrow money growth and changes in the primary deficit. This relationship defines a natural measure of fiscal balance and can be used as an accounting identity to examine the channels through which governments achieve fiscal sustainability. We evaluate the ability of this framework to account for the fiscal behaviour of six industrialised nations since 1960. We show how fiscal imbalances are mainly removed through adjustments in the primary deficit (80-100%), with less substantial roles being played by inflation (0-10%) and GDP growth (0-20%). Focusing on the relation between fiscal imbalances and...