School of Economics
NBER Working Papers and Publications
|December 2011||Linking External Sector Imbalances and Changing Financial Instability before the 2008 Financial Crisis|
with John Whalley, Manmohan Agarwal, Jing Wang, Sean Walsh: w17645
The G20 Framework for Strong, Sustainable and Balanced Growth builds on the claim that growing imbalances before the 2008 Financial Crisis were a major cause of the crisis, and the further claim that reducing imbalances post crisis must be a central part of any effort to prevent a further occurrence. Analytical literature in economics seemingly does not provide satisfactory measures of financial instability, either in individual national economies or in the combined global economy; nor ways of linking imbalance change to either worsening or improving financial (or real) instability and the onset of financial crises.
Here we focus on the external sector component of financial instability and link changes in country imbalances to individual economy growth rates in ways when summed across...
Published: “External Sector Rebalancing and Endogenous Trade Imbalance Models.” Contemporary Economics 6 (4), October 2012, pp. 20-26.
|August 2010||Foreign Affiliate Sales and Trade in Both Goods and Services|
with Chunding Li, John Whalley: w16273
Because of the differing forms that international agreements on trade in goods and trade in services take in the GATT (1994) and the GATS there is an incompatibility between measures of world trade in goods and services. Measures of goods trade reflecting GATT (1994) are restricted to trade that crosses borders. Service trade, however, under GATS mode 3 (commercial presence) includes both cross border delivery and foreign affiliate sales within borders. As a result, present comparisons of services and goods trade, as in WTO (2007), are unsatisfactory. One can further argue that our perceptions of the degree of integration in the global economy are likely ill formed, and for comparability the trade component of affiliate sales in goods should be included in goods trade or affiliate sales sh...
Published: Chunding Li & John Whalley & Yan Chen, 2015. "Foreign affiliate sales and the measurement of trade in both goods and services," China Economic Review, vol 36, pages 394-405.