NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
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Beatrice N. Vaccara

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NBER Working Papers and Publications

1980Introduction to "New Developments in Productivity Measurement"
with John W. Kendrick
in New Developments in Productivity Measurement, John W. Kendrick and Beatrice N. Vaccara, editors
May 1978Forecasting with the Index of Leading Indicators
with Victor Zarnowitz: w0244
The composite index of leading indicators is found to be a valuable tool for predicting not only the direction but also the size of near- term changes in aggregate economic activity. This conclusion is based on assessments of the leading index as a predictor of (1) business cycle turning points as dated by the National Bureau of Economic Research and (2) quantitative changes in real GNP and the composite index of coincident indicators. Specific smoothing rules are identified which reduce the frequency of false signals but still provide adequate early warning of cyclical turning points. Simple regression models based on first differences in the logarithms produce a comparatively good record of forecasts one and two quarters ahead. The best results are obtained by using predictive chains whe...
1968Factors Affecting the Postwar Industrial Composition of Real Product
with Nancy W. Simon
in The Industrial Composition of Income and Product, John W. Kendrick, editor
 
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