NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Angelo C. Gurgel

Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global
MIT
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NBER Working Papers and Publications

June 2007Assessment of U.S. Cap-and-Trade Proposals
with Sergey Paltsev, John M. Reilly, Henry D. Jacoby, Gilbert E. Metcalf, Andrei P. Sokolov, Jennifer F. Holak: w13176
The MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis model is applied to synthetic policies that match key attributes of a set of cap-and-trade proposals being considered by the U.S. Congress in spring 2007. The bills fall into two groups: one specifies emissions reductions of 50% to 80% below 1990 levels by 2050; the other establishes a tightening target for emissions intensity and stipulates a time-path for a "safety valve" limit on the emission price that approximately stabilizes U.S. emissions at the 2008 level. Initial period prices are estimated between $7 and $50 per ton CO2-e with these prices rising by a factor of four by 2050. Welfare costs vary from near zero to less than 0.5% at the start, rising in the most stringent case to near 2% in 2050. If allowances were auctioned these prop...

Published: "An Analysis of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Cap- and-Trade Proposals Us ing a Forward-Looking Economic Model," Environment and Development Economics, 16:2 (2011): 155 - 176 (with Angelo Gurgel, Sergey Paltsev, and John Reilly)

 
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