Andre Minella

Research Dept.
Central Bank of Brazil-Depep
SBS-Quadra 3-Bloco B-Edificio-Sede-9.andar
70074-900 Brasilia-DF BRAZIL


NBER Working Papers and Publications

May 2007Capital Flows and Controls in Brazil: What Have We Learned?
with Ilan Goldfajn
in Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices and Consequences, Sebastian Edwards, editor
September 2005Capital Flows and Controls in Brazil: What Have We Learned?
with Ilan Goldfajn: w11640
This paper analyzes the relationship between capital account liberalization and macroeconomic volatility using Brazil as a case study. The paper provides several stylized facts regarding the evolution of capital flows and controls in Brazil in the last three decades. We conclude that, notwithstanding the financial crises and macroeconomic volatility of the recent past, capital account liberalization and the floating exchange regime have led to a more resilient economy. Further liberalization of the capital account is warranted and should be accompanied by a broad range of reforms to improve and foster stronger institutions.
July 2004Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies
with Arminio Fraga, Ilan Goldfajn
in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003, Volume 18, Mark Gertler and Kenneth Rogoff, editors
October 2003Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies
with Arminio Fraga, Ilan Goldfajn: w10019
This paper assesses inflation targeting in emerging market economies (EMEs), and develops applied prescriptions for the conduct of monetary policy and inflation-targeting design in EMEs. We verify that EMEs have faced more acute trade-offs higher output and inflation volatility and worse performance than developed economies. These results stem from more pronounced external shocks, lower credibility, and lower level of development of institutions in these countries. In order to improve their performance, we recommend high levels of transparency and communication with the public and the development of more stable institutions. At an operational level, we propose a procedure that a central bank under inflation targeting can apply and communicate when facing strong supply shocks, and suggest...

Published: Fraga, Arminio, Ilan Goldfajn and André Minella. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, Vol. 18. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2003.

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