NBER Working Papers and Publications
|March 2018||Mortgage Market Credit Conditions and U.S. Presidential Elections|
with Charles W. Calomiris: w24459
Voters punish incumbent Presidential candidates for contractions in the local (county-level) supply of mortgage credit during market-wide contractions of credit, but they do not reward them for expansions in mortgage credit supply in boom times. Our primary focus is the Presidential election of 2008, which followed an unprecedented swing from very generous mortgage underwriting standards to a severe contraction of mortgage credit. Voters responded to the credit crunch by shifting their support away from the Republican Presidential candidate in 2008. That shift was particularly pronounced in states that typically vote Republican, and in swing states. The magnitude of the effect is large. If the supply of mortgage credit had not contracted from 2004 to 2008, McCain would have received half ...
|February 2017||What is the Price of Tea in China? Towards the Relative Cost of Living in Chinese and U.S. Cities|
with Robert C. Feenstra, Mingzhi Xu: w23161
We examine the price and variety of products at the barcode level in cities within China and the United States. In both countries, there is a greater variety of products in larger cities. But in China, unlike the United States, the prices of products tend to be lower in larger cities. We attribute the lower prices to a pro-competitive effect, whereby large cities attract more firms which leads to lower markups and prices. Combining the effect of greater variety and lower prices, it follows that the cost of living for grocery-store products in China is lower in larger cities. We further compare the cost-of-living indexes for particular product categories between China and the United States. In product categories with a significant presence of U.S. brands in the Chinese market, the availabil...