Department of Banking and Finance
University of Zurich
NBER Working Papers and Publications
|February 2017||Company Stock Reactions to the 2016 Election Shock: Trump, Taxes and Trade|
with Alexander Wagner, Richard J. Zeckhauser: w23152
The election of Donald J. Trump as the 45th President of the United States of America on 11/8/2016 came as a surprise. Markets responded swiftly and decisively. This note investigates both the initial stock market reaction to the election, and the longer-term reaction through the end of 2016. We find that the individual stock price reactions to the election – that is, the market’s vote – reflect investor expectations on economic growth, taxes, and trade policy. Heavy industry and banking were relative winners, whereas healthcare, medical equipment, pharmaceuticals, textiles, and apparel were among the relative losers. High-beta stocks and companies with a hitherto high tax burden benefited from the election. Although internationally-oriented companies may profit under some plans of the new...
|June 2003||The Dominance of Retail Stores|
with Edward P. Lazear: w9795
Most items are sold to consumers by retail stores. Stores have two features that distinguish them from auctions. First, the price is posted and a consumer who values the good at more than the posted price is sold the good. Second, the sale takes place as soon as the consumer decides to buy. In contrast, auctions have prices that are determined ex post and the potential consumer must wait until the auction is held to buy the good. Consequently, auctions result in false trading', where buyers sometimes pass up other valuable opportunities while waiting for the auction to occur or instead make undesired duplicate purchases. Retail stores dominate auctions when the good is perishable and/or becomes obsolete quickly, when the market is thin, and when close substitutes for the good are plentifu...