Alexandra M. Tabova
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
20th Street and Constitution Avenue N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20551
NBER Working Papers and Publications
|August 2009||Risk, Volatility, and the Global Cross-Section of Growth Rates|
with Craig Burnside: w15225
We reconsider the empirical links between volatility and growth between 1970 and 2007. There is a strong and significant correlation between individual country growth rates and global factors that are arguably exogenous with respect to their economies. The amount of volatility driven by these external factors is highly correlated, cross-sectionally, with the overall amount of volatility in GDP growth. There is also a strong correlation between a country's average growth rate and the magnitude and sign of its exposure to global factors. We interpret our findings as a partial answer to the question "Why doesn't capital flow from rich to poor countries?" We argue that low-income countries that grow slowly are riskier from the perspective of the marginal international investor.