NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
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Alexandr Kopytov

University of Pennsylvania
The Wharton School, Finance Department
2400 Steinberg-Dietrich Hall
3620 Locust Walk
Philadelphia, PA 19104-6367

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Institutional Affiliation: University of Pennsylvania

NBER Working Papers and Publications

March 2018Short-Run Pain, Long-Run Gain? Recessions and Technological Transformation
with Nikolai Roussanov, Mathieu Taschereau-Dumouchel: w24373
Recent empirical evidence suggests that job polarization associated with skill-biased technological change accelerated during the Great Recession. We use a standard neoclassical growth framework to analyze how business cycle fluctuations interact with the long-run transition towards a skill-intensive technology. In the model, since adopting the new technology disrupts production, firms prefer to do so in recessions, when profits are low. Similarly, workers also tend to learn new skills during downturns. As a result, recessions are deeper during periods of technological transition, but they also speed up adoption of the new technology. We document evidence for these mechanisms in the data. Our calibrated model is able to match both the long-run downward trend in routine employment and the d...

Published: Alexandr Kopytov & Nikolai Roussanov & Mathieu Taschereau-Dumouchel, 2018. "Short-Run Pain, Long-Run Gain? Recessions and Technological Transformation," Journal of Monetary Economics, . citation courtesy of

 
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