Department of Economics
University of Chicago
1126 E. 59th Street
Chicago, IL 60637
NBER Working Papers and Publications
|April 2011||Inference with Imperfect Randomization: The Case of the Perry Preschool Program|
with James J. Heckman, Rodrigo Pinto, Azeem M. Shaikh: w16935
This paper considers the problem of making inferences about the effects of a program on multiple outcomes when the assignment of treatment status is imperfectly randomized. By imperfect randomization we mean that treatment status is reassigned after an initial randomization on the basis of characteristics that may be observed or unobserved by the analyst. We develop a partial identification approach to this problem that makes use of information limiting the extent to which randomization is imperfect to show that it is still possible to make nontrivial inferences about the effects of the program in such settings. We consider a family of null hypotheses in which each null hypothesis specifies that the program has no effect on one of several outcomes of interest. Under weak assumptions, w...
|July 2010||Analyzing Social Experiments as Implemented: A Reexamination of the Evidence From the HighScope Perry Preschool Program|
with James J. Heckman, Seong Hyeok Moon, Rodrigo Pinto, Peter A. Savelyev: w16238
Social experiments are powerful sources of information about the effectiveness of interventions. In practice, initial randomization plans are almost always compromised. Multiple hypotheses are frequently tested. "Significant" effects are often reported with p-values that do not account for preliminary screening from a large candidate pool of possible effects. This paper develops tools for analyzing data from experiments as they are actually implemented. We apply these tools to analyze the influential HighScope Perry Preschool Program. The Perry program was a social experiment that provided preschool education and home visits to disadvantaged children during their preschool years. It was evaluated by the method of random assignment. Both treatments and controls have been followed from age ...
Published: James Heckman & Seong Hyeok Moon & Rodrigo Pinto & Peter Savelyev & Adam Yavitz, 2010. "Analyzing social experiments as implemented: A reexamination of the evidence from the HighScope Perry Preschool Program," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 1(1), pages 1-46, 07. citation courtesy of
|A New Cost-Benefit and Rate of Return Analysis for the Perry Preschool Program: A Summary|
with James J. Heckman, Seong Hyeok Moon, Rodrigo Pinto, Peter Savelyev: w16180
This paper summarizes our recent work on the rate of return and cost-benefit ratio of an influential early childhood program.
Published: “The Rate of the Return to the HighScope Perry Preschool Program,” (with S. H. Moon, R. Pinto, P. A. Savelyev, A. Yavitz). Journal of Public Economics , 94 : 114–128, (2010).
|November 2009||The Rate of Return to the High/Scope Perry Preschool Program|
with James J. Heckman, Seong Hyeok Moon, Rodrigo Pinto, Peter A. Savelyev: w15471
This paper estimates the rate of return to the High/Scope Perry Preschool Program, an early intervention program targeted toward disadvantaged African-American youth. Estimates of the rate of return to the Perry program are widely cited to support the claim of substantial economic benefits from preschool education programs. Previous studies of the rate of return to this program ignore the compromises that occurred in the randomization protocol. They do not report standard errors. The rates of return estimated in this paper account for these factors. We conduct an extensive analysis of sensitivity to alternative plausible assumptions. Estimated social rates of return generally fall between 7-10 percent, with most estimates substantially lower than those previously reported in the literature...
Published: Heckman, James J. & Moon, Seong Hyeok & Pinto, Rodrigo & Savelyev, Peter A. & Yavitz, Adam, 2010.
"The rate of return to the HighScope Perry Preschool Program,"
Journal of Public Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 94(1-2), pages 114-128, February.
citation courtesy of